Stat of the Day, 26th January 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

7.45 Newcastle : Hanakatoba @ 5/1 BOG N/R (Withdrawn at 7:56am Fri 25 Jan  Reason: Vets Cert – Temperature)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out when partnered by today’s jockey for the first time. That was just 7 days ago over this course and distance in a Class 5 contest and although our boy is now rated 3lbs higher, he does take a drop in class today.

He has won 7 of 34 starts on the A/W so far and this decent 20.6% strike rate includes of relevance today…

  • 6/24 in cheekpieces
  • 5/24 over 6f
  • 6/20 on Polytrack
  • 4/15 off a mark of 61-70
  • 6/12 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 here at Lingfield
  • 3/10 within a week of his last run
  • 3/6 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 with Franny Norton in the saddle

His trainer, Charlie Wallis is 14 from 44 (31.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+99.7% ROI) with his 6f A/W sprinters to date, from which…

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 37.9pts (+102.4%) on polytrack
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 34.06pts (+100.2%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 26.1pts (+100.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 27.41pts (+144.3%) in December/January
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.8pts (+98.3%) from LTO winners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 12.02pts (+120.2%) over this track and trip

And, since the start of 2017, Charlie’s runners reappearing just 4-10 days after their last run are 18/83 (21.7% SR) for 42pts (+50.6%), including…

  • handicappers at 18/78 (23.1%) for 47pts (+60.3%)
  • on the A/W : 16/57 (28.1%) for 42pts (+73.6%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 : 16/52 (30.8%) for 44.9pts (+86.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • on Polytrack : 11/43 (25.6%) for 27.7pts (+64.3%)
  • over 6f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 29.5pts (+89.5%)
  • those dropping down a class : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.71pts (+64.7%)
  • at Lingfield : 3/13 (23.1%) for 11.15pts (+85.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/12 (50%) for 21.82pts (+181.8%)

…and from the above… A/W handicappers at 6/4 to 8/1 are 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 54pts (+154.3%) including 11 from 24 (45.8%) for 41.23pts (+171.8%) at Class 6…

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Hills, SportPesa & SportNation at 5.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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