Saturday’s Pick was…
2.30 Lingfield : Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up and behind on inside, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
French Mix @ 11/4 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £3619 to the winner…
Here we have a 5 yr old Mare with five top three finishes from her last seven outings (all under today’s jockey, 5lb claimer Hannah Welch) including 2 wins from her last 5 runs and she was a winner LTO just 3 days ago by 3 lengths over 1m4f in another Class 5 handicap.
To date, she has 4 wins and 2 places from 16 A/W handicap outings and they include…
- 4 wins, 2 places from 11 at 1m4f to 1m6f
- 3w, 2pl from 11 for trainer Alex Dunn
- 2w, 2pl from 8 within a fortnight of her last run
- 3 wins from 7 at Class 5
- 3 wins from 6 in fields of 7-10 runners
- 1wm 1pl from 5 here at Wolverhampton
- and 1w, 1pl from 3 under Hannah Welch
She’s by Dalakhani, whose offspring are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 127.8pts (+250.6% ROI) in Tapeta handicaps since the start of 2016 after not running on Tapeta LTO and these include…
- 7/34 (20.6%) for 5.3pts (+15.5%) here at Wolverhampton
- 9/29 (32.1%) for 150.8pts (+538.6%) from August to January inclusive
- 5/24 (20.8%) for 129.8pts (+540.6%) over trips of 1m4f and beyond
- 8/21 (38.1%) for 27.3pts (+130.1%) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
- 6/18 (33.3%) for 142.4pts (+791%) from October to January
- 5/17 (29.4%) for 141.7pts (+833.6%) within 15 days of their last run
And trainer Alex Dunn (who admittedly is probably better known to you for training class 4/5 handicap jumpers) is 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+214.8% ROI) since the start of 2018 with her A/W runners turned back out within 25 days of a top 3 finish LTO and these include…
- in handicaps : 9/24 (37.5%) for 48.9pts (+203.7%)
- 4-7 yr olds : 10/22 (45.5%) for 59.9pts (+272.3%)
- not dropping in class : 10/20 (50%) for 61.9pts (+309.5%)
- same class as LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.1pts (+287.5%)
- over 1m4f to 2m : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.7%)
- at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+282.8%)
- LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.2pts (+180%)
- at Class 5 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 27.7pts (+395%)
- in January : 4/6 (66.6%) for 22.5pts (+375.3%)
- less than 5 days rest : 2/2 (100%) for 5.8pts (+290%)
- and over 1m6f : 1/2 950%) for 9.96pts (+498%)
…whilst 4-7 yr old handicappers at the same class as LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 38.14pts (+346.7% ROI)…
..giving us a 1pt win bet on French Mix @ 11/4 BOG as was available from at least 10 firms at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!