Stat of the Day, 28th January 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

2.30 Lingfield : Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up and behind on inside, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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French Mix @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m6on Tapeta worth £3619 to the winner

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old Mare with five top three finishes from her last seven outings (all under today’s jockey, 5lb claimer Hannah Welch) including 2 wins from her last 5 runs and she was a winner LTO just 3 days ago by 3 lengths over 1m4f in another Class 5 handicap.

To date, she has 4 wins and 2 places from 16 A/W handicap outings and they include…

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 at 1m4f to 1m6f
  • 3w, 2pl from 11 for trainer Alex Dunn
  • 2w, 2pl from 8 within a fortnight of her last run
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 5
  • 3 wins from 6 in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 1wm 1pl from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1w, 1pl from 3 under Hannah Welch

She’s by Dalakhani, whose offspring are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 127.8pts (+250.6% ROI) in Tapeta handicaps since the start of 2016 after not running on Tapeta LTO and these include…

  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 5.3pts (+15.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/29 (32.1%) for 150.8pts (+538.6%) from August to January inclusive
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 129.8pts (+540.6%) over trips of 1m4f and beyond
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 27.3pts (+130.1%) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 142.4pts (+791%) from October to January
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 141.7pts (+833.6%) within 15 days of their last run

And trainer Alex Dunn (who admittedly is probably better known to you for training class 4/5 handicap jumpers) is 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+214.8% ROI) since the start of 2018 with her A/W runners turned back out within 25 days of a top 3 finish LTO and these include…

  • in handicaps : 9/24 (37.5%) for 48.9pts (+203.7%)
  • 4-7 yr olds : 10/22 (45.5%) for 59.9pts (+272.3%)
  • not dropping in class : 10/20 (50%) for 61.9pts (+309.5%)
  • same class as LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.1pts (+287.5%)
  • over 1m4f to 2m : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.7%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+282.8%)
  • LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.2pts (+180%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 27.7pts (+395%)
  • in January : 4/6 (66.6%) for 22.5pts (+375.3%)
  • less than 5 days rest : 2/2 (100%) for 5.8pts (+290%)
  • and over 1m6f : 1/2 950%) for 9.96pts (+498%)

…whilst 4-7 yr old handicappers at the same class as LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 38.14pts (+346.7% ROI)…

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on French Mix @ 11/4 BOG as was available from at least 10 firms at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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