Monday’s Pick was…
4.50 Wolverhampton : French Mix @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led 2f, remained prominent, led again over 1f out, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Mumgos Debut @ 5/1 BOG
…in a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner…
This 11 yr old gelding had a wind op in mid-November last year and returned to the track 27 days ago. He’s now 2 from 2 after the op, with wins 27 and 14 days ago, both in C4 hcp chases over today’s trip under today’s jockey on good to soft and soft ground. That win a fortnight ago was here at Newcastle over course and distance and was actually an SotD pick!
In a way, I’m going back to the same well as many of the stats from a fortnight ago are still valid albeit slightly different, so for those who didn’t see it, here’s what suggests Mumgos Debut will go well again today.
His record in handicap chases stands at 7 from 30 (23.3% SR) for 12.39pts (+41.3% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins…
- all 7 came from 25 (28%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 17.39pts (+69.6%)
- 5/21 (23.8%) for 10.7pts (+50.9%) at Class 4
- 6/20 (30%) for 19.73pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
- 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.78pts (+127%) after less than 3 weeks rest
- 4/12 (33.3%) for 4.89pts (+40.8%) under Derek Fox
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.26pts (+38.7%) over this 2m½f trip
- 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+68.4%) here at Newcastle
- and 3/3 (100%) for 18.08pts (+602.6%) on Good to Soft ground
In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 222211 and from the above… at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 3from 5 (60% SR) for 16.08pts (+321.6% ROI).
Since Easter of last year, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 13.25pts profit at an ROI of 73.6%, including the following of note today…
- in handicaps : 6/16 (37.5%) for 12.6pts (+78.8%)
- males : 6/15 (40%) for 13.64pts (+90.9%)
- prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.4pts (+130.9%)
- shorter than 13/2 SP : 7/12 (58.3%) for 19.25pts (+160.4%)
- Class 4 : 4/8 (50%) for 13.96pts (+174.5%)
- Derek Fox : 5/8 (62.5%) for 17.21pts (+215.1%)
- and over this 2m½f trip : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.31pts (+175.9%)
…whilst from the above… male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.74pts (+224.9% ROI), from which they are 3/5at Class 4, 3/4 under Derek Fox, 3/4 over this 2m½f trip and 3 from 3 under the jockey/class/distance combo for 16.31pts at an ROI of 543.7%!
And finally (!) for today, it’s worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 24.15pts (+115% ROI)…
..giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Betfair, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!