Wednesday’s Pick was…
3.35 Newcastle : Generous Jack @ 3/1 BOG N/R (Meeting Abandoned – snow, frost, brexit etc)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Portledge @ 11/4 BOG
…in a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £5387 to the winner…
Well, admittedly, this 5 yr old gelding’s 4 from 23 record doesn’t exactly scream “back me!”, but does suggest some ability, so I took a closer look and discovered that the 4 from 23 includes 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.87pts (+168.2% ROI) on the All-Weather and he has won two of his last four (all here at Newcastle) including a course and distance win last time out 19 days ago.
Now, he’s of more interest and I then looked at that 4/13 on the A/W and they contain…
- 4 wins from 10 over the 7f trip
- 4 from 10 on tapeta
- 4 from 9 here at Newcastle
- 4 from 6 over course and distance
- 3 from 8 in blinkers
- 2 from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
- and 2 from 4 in Class 4 contests worth less than £6k to the winner.
Obviously all of the above apply today and he’ll now seek to improve on his trainer’s already impressive record on this track, as James Bethell’s A/W handicappers sent off at odds of 12/1 and shorter are 17 from 65 (26.2% SR) for 58.8pts (+90.5% ROI) on the Newcastle tapeta and these include of relevance today…
- males : 14/48 (29.2%) for 49.5pts (+103.1%)
- at Class 4 : 8/27 (29.6%) for 31.9pts (+118%)
- less than 3 weeks rest : 10/24 (41.7%) for 60.4pts (+251.4%)
- ridden by PJ McDonald : 7/21 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+114.7%)
- over this 7f course and distance : 6/13 (46.2%) for 39.1pts (+300.9%)
- and in January (which we are still, just!) : 4/12 (33.3%) for 8pts (+66.6%)
…giving us a 1pt win bet on Portledge @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills & Sky at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!