Stat of the Day, 1st February 2019

Thursday’s Pick was…

6.25 Newcastle : Portledge@ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by half a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

1.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG

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…in a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the lateness (almost 9.30am) of the write-up, I had to do the school run in the snow as all the school buses were cancelled round these parts, but I’m hoping the huge swathe of data I’m going to present will be worth the wait!

On a poor day of racing with very little of statistical interest to me, I thought this 12 yr old gelding (yes, 12!) was worth a punt at the odds offered, considering he has form at both track and trip in the past and was also flagged up three times on my daily “angles sheet”, starting with…

…offspring of Cape Cross… are 47/123 (38.2% SR) for 64.2pts (+52.2% ROI) since the start of 2015 when sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 on Tapeta, including of relevance today :

  • Prize money of less than £8k : 42/111 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+47%)
  • Wolverhampton : 40/98 (40.8%) for 60.8pts (+62%)
  • Males : 34/84 (40.5%) for 58.3pts (+69.5%)
  • Class 6 : 11/28 (39.3%) for 15.8pts (+56.3%)
  • 4-10 days since last run : 7/14 950%) for 16.33pts (+116.6%)
  • Over 7 furlongs : 8/20 (40%) for 8.26pts (+41.3%)

…and males competing for less than £8,000 at Wolverhampton are 28/65 (43.1% SR) for 49.5pts (+76.2% ROI)…

Then we have trainer Phil McEntee, whose Wolverhampton A/W handicappers sent off 6/4 to 9/1 since 2012 are 18/81 (22.2% SR) for 50.5pts (+62.3% ROI) and here are some of the ways (all in play today) how he got those winners…

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 18/75 (24%) for 56.5pts (+75.3%)
  • Males : 17/69 (24.6%) for 59.5pts (+86.2%)
  • 4-21 dslr : 16/63 (25.4%) for 57.1pts (+90.6%)
  • 6-10 runners : 15/47 (31.9%) for 65pts (+138.2%)
  • Tapeta : 13/50 (26%) for 32pts (+64%)
  • Feb/March : 11/29 (37.9%) for 57.8pts (+199.2%)
  • Class 6 : 11/50 (22%) for 22.1pts (+44.2%)
  • OR 46-54 : 9/31 (29%) for 38pts (+122.7%)
  • Over 7f : 7/25 (28%) for 35.6pts (+142.3%)

…and males racing 4-21 dslr in fields of 6-10 runners for less than £4k are 12/24 (50% SR) for 73.5pts (+306.3% ROI) with 8 of the last 12 winning…

And finally for today (!)… Phil McEntee’s UK handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 38 from 200 (19% SR) for 42.6pts (+21.3% ROI) since the start of 2014, with the following of particular relevance today…

  • On the A/W : 29/145 (20%) for 23.6pts (+16.3%)
  • At 9/4 to 13/2 : 32/98 (32.7%) for 53.3pts (+54.4%)
  • Jan-April : 25/98 (25.5%) for 46.6pts (+47.5%)
  • 2018-19 : 15/74 (20.3%) for 49.53pts (+66.9%)
  • Over 7f : 16/62 (25.8%) for 35.1pts (+56.5%)
  • At Wolverhampton : 9/33 (27.3%) for 7.9pts (+23.9%)
  • On Tapeta : 8/30 (26.7%) for 7.8pts (+26.1%)

…and over 5-7f on the A/W at odds of 9/4 to 13/2 during Jan-April : 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 33.9pts (+91.7% ROI)…

 …giving us a 1pt win bet on Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Sky at 6.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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