Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

1.30 Wolverhampton : Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and edged right over 1f out, headed 120 yards out, no extra towards finish, beaten by just 2 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner

Why?

Well, to be honest, there is some some data to back up the selection, but not as much as usual. I did however, like the horse’s chances here and at 13/2 BOG, I thought that price was far too high and the apparent value in the price made up for the lack of comprehensive data, if you follow. (as low as 7/2 at 9.00am now!)

Stat-wise, we have a 5yr old gelding switched to the A/W for the first time five starts ago and he has since won twice and placed twice in that handful of runs, all on Polytrack. To date in his career he has…

  • 5 wins and 4 places from 13 off a mark of 71-80
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at Class 4
  • 1 win and 1 place wearing a visor

He also became of interest , because I spotted that the under-rated (IMO) Kathy Begley (née Glenister) had been booked for the ride and she’s in sparkling form right now. She mainly rides for today’s trainer David Evans and over the last six weeks or so, all her 16 rides (sadly under-used) have been for David, culminating in 7 winners and 4 placers with the 43.75% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 34.47pts at an ROI of 215.4% and these include…

  • OR 50-80 : 7/13 (53.8%) for 37.5pts (+288.2%)
  • in hcps : 5/13 (38.5%) for 29pts (+222.7%)
  • males : 5/12 (41.7%) for 23.7pts (+197.5%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 6/11 (54.5%) for 29.4pts (+267.6%)
  • 10-13 runners : 5/10 (50%) for 32pts (+320%)
  • on Polytrack : 4/8 (50%) for 21.4pts (+267.1%)
  • and when Kathy claims 5lbs : 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.52pts (+184%)

 …giving us a 1pt win bet on Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out all day/night Sunday, so Matt will be in the chair for Monday’s selection. I’ll be back with you on Monday (for Tuesday) as normal : enjoy your weekend!

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