Stat of the Day, 4th February 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

6.45 Kempton : Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Took keen hold, led early, prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong op 7/1)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner


We’re looking at a trainer, jockey and horse who both individually and collectively fare well in today’s conditions. Here are some of the specifics:

Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 16% win rate at the track in the last five years (16/100, +19.98), which improves to 18% (13/72, +34.48) when we home in on low grade (Class 5 or lower) handicaps.

The booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Kirby leads the All Weather Jockeys’ Championship at the moment, and has a 22% win rate at the track in the last year, for a profit at SP of 25.26 points.

When pairing up, Mulholland and Kirby are 8 from 22 in the last two years (36%, +22.13); and when pairing up in low grade handicaps that record improves to 6 from 14 (43%, +13.73).

The horse herself is a nine-year-old now, and she’s run at Wolverhampton seven times before. While she’s only won once, she’s hit the frame on five occasions, with a full form string of 1522332.

This is the first time she gets the Kirby treatment and, on her last two runs here, he’d only have to find a length of improvement to convert those narrow course and distance defeats (by a length and a neck) into victory

 …giving us a rare 1/2 point each way bet on Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Sunday evening (Betbright 6/1, 11/2 general). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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