Stat of the Day, 5th February 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

6.25 Wolverhampton : Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 E/W BOG yet to run (result & report to follow)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W Handicap over 1m on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner

Why?

Well, at first glance a career record of 0/7 isn’t inspiring, but after a 3 month break, this 3yr old gelding has made the frame in both of his starts, both on Tapeta in the last 15 days. He was second, beaten by half a length over 7f 15 days ago, looking like needing further, but didn’t seem to quite get 9.5f LTO 4 days ago when placed third a neck and ahead behind the winner.

Hopefully a drop back in trip to somewhere between the two will prove enough for third time lucky.

He’s by Society Rock, whose 2/3 yr olds running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs in Class 4 to 6 Tapeta A/W handicaps at odds shorter than 10/1 are 6/30 (20% SR) for 5.66pts (+18.9% ROI), including…

  • at 7f/1m : 4/10 (40%) for 16.68pts (+166.8%)
  • within 14 dslr : 4/10 (40%) for 11.31pts (+113.1%)
  • and at 7f/1m within 14dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 12.46pts (+207.6%)

Now, I admit that 30 runners isn’t the best or biggest sample size, I’ve used for SotD, so let’s move on and take a look at UK A/W handicaps over 6f to 1m2f since the start of 2013 in general and more specifically, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO in the previous 5 days ie not beaten by far and quickly turned back out. Such horses are 165/745 (22.2% SR) for 188.5pts (+25.3% ROI) and they throw up a myriad of workable profitable angles you could follow, but I’m going to list “just” 10 today…

  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 161/663 (24.3%) for 177.4pts (+26.8%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 135/595 (22.7%) for 145.6pts (+24.5%)
  • males are 130/560 (23.2%) for 170.3pts (+30.4%)
  • 4/5 dslr : 117/479 (24.4%) for 203.9pts (+42.6%)
  • 7 to 8.5f : 99/406 (24.4%) for 160.6pts (+39.6%)
  • Class 6 : 89/390 (22.8%) for 128.6pts (+33%)
  • 3rd LTO : 44/205 (21.5%) for 76.6pts (+37.4%)
  • 4 dslr : 59/204 (28.9%) for 157.5pts (+77.2%)
  • on Tapeta : 50/200 (25%) for 74.4pts (+37.2%)
  • and those dropping in trip by 0.5 to 1.5 furlongs are 35/136 (25.7%) for 78.6pts (+57.8%)

Over the last 6 years, plenty of horses have ticked lots of the above boxes and gone on to win, in fact Bobby Joe Leg, currently 7/2 in today’s 5.15 race ticks 8 of them, but by virtue of ticking all ten…

 …today’s advice is… a 1pt win bet on Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.05pm on Monday evening (but 4/1 @ Bet365). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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