Stat of the Day, 6th February 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

6.45 Newcastle : Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on under pressure to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, winning by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG

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…in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f on Soft gorund worth £3184 to the winner


A 6yr old mare with a recent form line reading 2412, suggesting she’s in good nick right now. The win in that sequence was (a) her only ever trip here to Ayr and (b) the previous time she’s had today’s jockey, Ross Chapman, ride her in a race and they combined to land a course and distance win here 29 days ago, before she was a beaten odds on fav next/last time out, although neither disgraced nor beaten by far.

Ross has ridden 12 winners here at Ayr since the start of 2018 and to put that into perspective, that’s from just 41 rides (29.3% SR) generating level stakes profits of 29.4pts at an ROI of some 71.7%, including…

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+82.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/27 (44.4%) for 43.4pts (+160.7%) at single-digit odds
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.4%) over hurdles
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 21.5pts (+134.4%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.93pts (+296.5%) in conditional jockey races

…whilst from the above Ross is 4 from 4 (100%) for 26.4pts (+660%) in Class 5 handicap hurdles at 9/1 or shorter including that 2 from 2 record in conditional jockey races from above!

Today’s trainer Sam England is also in a decent run of form with 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) over the last 40 days generating 2.75pts profit at an ROI of 9.82% : modest profits but more than his fair share of winners, especially in handicaps where he is 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+46.4%) including at Class 4/5 : 6 from 15 (40%) for 6.93pts (+46.2%).

I mentioned that this mare was a beaten odds on favourite LTO, she was only caught really late on, so the slight drop in trip might help her and that said losing at odds on is no real disaster (unless you’ve lumped on!), because many horses bounce straight back from such a loss…

…as since the start of 2013 in UK NH handicaps, horses who finished as odds-on runners-up are 34 from 158 (21.5% SR) for 81.5pts (+51.6% ROI) when turned back out 16-30 days later and these include of relevance today…

  • over trips of 2m to 3m : 28/126 (22.2%) for 79.9pts (+63.4%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 32/24 (25.8%) for 46.4pts (+37.4%)
  • over hurdles : 20/95 (21%) for 55.8pts (+58.8%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 23/73 (31.5%) for 118.2pts (+161.9%)
  • in February : 4/12 (33.3%) for 49.2pts (+409.9%)
  • and at Class 5 : also 4/12 (33.3%) but for 8.32pts (+69.3%)

…from which C5 hurdlers at 8/1 and shorter are 18/60 (30% SR) for 39.9pts (+66.5% ROI) with those only beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO winning 12 of 22 (54.6%) for 46.7pts (+212.1%)

And finally (phew!), using the same 2o13-now time frame in UK NH handicap hurdle races, those who were runners up by 3 lengths or less LTO are 49/212 (23.1% SR) for 70.2pts (+33.1% ROI) when returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win and these include…

  • at 4-60 dslr : 45/174 (25.9%) for 63.4pts (+36.4%)
  • at odds shorter than 12/1 : 47/170 (27.7%) for 78.5pts (+46.2%)
  • at trips shorter than 3m : 37/139 (26.6%) for 90.1pts (+64.8%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/30 (30%) for 16.3pts (+54.3%)

…whilst from the above…Sub-12/1 runners turned out over trips shorter than 3 miles, 4-60 days after their last run are 42 from 128 (32.8% SR) for 93.1pts (+72.7% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 7 of 18 (38.9%) for 17.2pts (+95.5%)…

 …giving us… a 1pt win bet on Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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