Stat of the Day, 13th February 2019
Last Wednesday’s Pick was…
1.30 Ayr : Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 7/4 (Close up on inside, pushed along after 4 out, lost place next, soon weakened, tailed off)
This Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Liama @ 3/1 BOG
…in an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £2264 to the winner…
Why?
This 4 yr old filly is still lightly raced but comes here having made the frame on each of her previous visits to this venue and hails from a yard that was doing rather well before the enforced break.
In fact, in the three weeks prior to the EI outbreak, David O’Meara’s horses had won 6 of 28 (21.4% SR) for profits of 9.77pts (+34.9% ROI), including…
- on the A/W : 5/26 (19.2%) for 9.19pts (+35.4%)
- in handicaps : 4/23 (17.4%) for 6.74pts (+29.3%)
- at odds of evens to 8/1 : 6/22 (27.3%) for 15.77pts (+71.7%)
- at Class 6 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.03pts (+133.7%)
- over 6f : 2/8 (25%) for 15.8pts (+197.5%)
…whilst A/W handicappers at evens to 8/1 were 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 11.74pts (+65.2% ROI), from which those racing over 6f were 2/7 (28.6%) for 16.8pts (+240%), Class 6 runners were 2/4 (50%) for 1.58pts (+289.4%) and Class 6, 6f runners were 1 from 2 (50%) for 11.49pts (+574.5%).
Carrying 9st 12lbs off a mark of 60 puts our girl clear at the head of the weights after jockey claims, but that not a negative on this track, especially in the lower grade contests, as since 2014 in Class 5/6 A/W handicaps here, clear top weights are 130/604 (21.5% SR) for 1173pts (+19.4% ROI) backed blindly over trips of 1m6f and shorter, including…
- off a mark of 60 or higher : 110/471 (23.4%) for 126.9pts (+26.9%)
- at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 81/302 (26.8%) for 51.2pts (+17%)
- over this 6f trip : 34/114 (29.8%) for 30.1pts
…and those racing over 6f off a mark of 6o and higher that were sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are 19 from 60 (31.7% SR) for 20.1pts (+33.5% ROI)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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