Stat of the Day, 14th February 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

2.00 Southwell : Liamba @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 (With leaders, led 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, held towards finish

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 4-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over 2m7½f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £2808 to the winner… 

Why?

On a day of mediocre racing littered with small fields and short-priced favourites, I’m opposing the 4/9 odds-on jolly with what is effectively the “outsider of three”, as Purcells Bridge seems to have been deemed out of contention.

There is an old theory that you should back the outsider of three and with such runners winning 38 of 223 chases (17% SR) for 96.6pts (+43.3% ROI) since the start of 2016, there might well be some mileage in that angle, but as this is still technically a four-runner race, we’ll bookmark that stat for possible later usage!

The reason I’m siding with this one is that I think the market is wrong in (a) going 4/9 about the fav and (b) going as long as 7/2 about our boy who’s already won 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) over fences for level stakes profits of 12.41pts (+77.6% ROI) and his suitability for the task ahead is shown by the following derived from that 6/16 record…

  • in Hunter Chases (not novice or maiden) : 6/11 (54.5%) for 17.41pts (+158.3%)
  • at odds of evens to 11/2 : 5/9 (55.5%) for 17.57pts (+195.2%)
  • on Good/Good to Soft ground: 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.07pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/3 (100%) for 13.45pts (+448.4%)
  • in 2018 : 3/3 (100%) for 11.78pts (+392.7%)
  • over 3m (no run at this slightly shorter trip yet) : 3/3 (100%) for 10.08pts (+336%)
  • after a layoff of 8 to 10 months : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.23pts (+274.5%)
  • and in fields of 3/4 runners : 2/2 (100%) for 6.3pts (+315%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Kelso

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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