Stat of the Day, 15th February 2019

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.10 Kelso : Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 11th, led 3 out, bumped on landing last, headed flat, no extra)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 6, handicap over 6f on Standard to Slow, worth £2264 to the winner… 


Nigel Tinkler is a trainer who has successfully flown under the radar for most for quite a long time. He has specialisms, however, which he exploits very well.

The first is his ability to win with horses on their first start in a handicap, a feat which he’s reprised on five occasions (from 25 such runners) in the last two years, for +22.5 at SP (A/E 2.94).

Two others I want to mention are somewhat conflated, and they are these: second time in a handicap, and with last time out winners. Second time in a handicap, Tinkler has won with four of 23 in the last two years (+7.50, A/E 1.80), and in the same window he’s won with 13 of 58 last day winners (22.41% SR, +13.25, A/E 1.27).

Conflation, or making two different things into one, is a dangerous game. However, on this occasion, looking at handicap second-timers which won on their handicap debut leads us to just four qualifiers, of which two won. That pair were worth +17.5 at SP, at an A/E of 4.00. Obviously a tiny sample size, but the key message is that Nigel Tinkler is very well able to secure and subsequently exploit a competitive handicap mark.

That’s the trick we hope will pay here..

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.30pm on Thursday evening. Skybet, however, were 3/1 at that time if you’re able to get that. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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