Stat of the Day, 16th February 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

7.15 Newcastle : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG still to run ()

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.20 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Getaway Trump @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Grade 3 handicap over 2 miles on Good to Soft, worth £47,829 to the winner… 

Why?

A fiendish handicap puzzle and a relatively short-priced runner, so the case has to be fairly compelling. Fortunately it is, as follows…

Paul Nicholls is a trainer at the very top of his craft and, while his Cheltenham Festival record in recent years is not what it was, the remainder of his season has bombproof statistics. This chap is making his handicap debut, which is an area in which Nicholls excels: in the last two years, he’s run 65 handicap debutants from which he’s harvested 14 winners (21.54% SR, +12.73, A/E 1.26).

Specifically at Ascot, his five year handicap 1st time record is four wins from ten runs (three more placed). Those four winners (40%) were worth 18.13 in profit at SP at an A/E of 2.03. Very healthy, albeit on a small sample size.

Harry Cobden, who blogged here at geegeez.co.uk in his conditional season, is the number one rider at Nicholls’ Ditcheat yard nowadays, and the pair are in excellent form. In the past fortnight at time of writing, they’ve combined for four winners from nine runners (44%), with another three placed.

And Nicholls’ record at Ascot over the past year is also very good: 7 wins from 38 starts, +15.66, A/E 1.02 IV 2.00

Getaway Trump is stepping into the lion’s den to some degree here, but his trainer has shown time and again how adept he is with placing his horses first time in a handicap, a feat who pulled off in this race in 2012 when Zarkandar scored. All of which gives us…

…a 1pt win bet on Getaway Trump @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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