Stat of the Day, 19th February 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

3.00 Carlisle : Absolutely Dylan @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Held up, closed 6th, given reminder, led after next, headed 9th, lost place 12th, not fluent 4 out, well beaten from next)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.45 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7f on good ground, worth £6108 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a very lightly raced (today is his 6th outing) 8 yr old gelding who has been a runner-up on each of his last two starts, despite a 445-day gap between them!

He was only beaten late on by half a length last time out 50 days ago when (a) coming off that lengthy absence, (b) running for Jeremy Scott for the first time and (c) ridden by today’s jockey, the rising star, Rex Dingle for the first time. He’s expected to come on for the run, should stay and carries virtually no weight here today.

Jeremy Scott is 20 from 102 (19.6% SR) for 125.23pts (+122.8% ROI) backed blindly here at Taunton since the start of 2011 and that’s too many bets, here are a dozen relevance angles at play today, all derived from that stat…

  1. males are 18/82 (2%) for 140pts (+170.8%)
  2. those who had raced in the previous 50 days are 19/70 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+209.7%)
  3. handicappers are 14/61 (23%) for 22.1pts(+36.3%)
  4. at Class 4, it’s 8/53 (15.1%) for 101pts (+190.6%)
  5. at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 17/50 (34%) for 43.75pts (+87.5%)
  6. Feb-April : 9/34 (26.5%) for 25.1pts (+73.8%)
  7. 2nd/3rd LTO : 10/28 (35.7%) for 32.5pts (+116.1%)
  8. with a 3/5 lb claimer on board : 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.4pts (+86.3%)
  9. 2018/19 = 8/21 (38.1%) for 118.4pts (+563.9%)
  10. chasers are 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.7pts (+143%)
  11. 8/9 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 17pts (+141.8%)
  12. Rex Dingle = 2/5 (40%) for 1.88pts (+37.7%)

…whilst more generally… Rex Dingle is 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.3pts (+61.5% ROI) on Jeremy Scott-trained runners including 6 wins from 12 (50%) for 13.4pts (+111.7%) in handicaps…

…and even more generally… Jeremy Scott’s Class 4 handicap chasers are 36 from 173 (20.8% SR) for 84.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include…

  • after a 3-8 week rest : 23/94 (24.5%) for 80.4pts (+85.5%)
  • on Good ground : 19/83 (22.9%) for 30.8pts (+37.1%)
  • and here at Taunton : 3/7 (42.9%) for 22.9pts (+326.9%)

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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