Stat of the Day, 20th February 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

3.45 Taunton : Orchardstown Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Mistake 1st, held up behind, headway and in touch 10th, went 2nd before 4 out, led after next, driven clear after 2 out, stayed on well, comfortably clear by 8 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m on good ground, worth £6563 to the winner… 


This 6 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and comes here off the back of a decent run at Cheltenham 25 days ago, when third in a higher grade of contest than this one he faces today.

His trainer, Tom Lacey, has hit the ground running after the resumption of racing last week landing 4 wins from 10 runners (40% SR) for level stakes profits of 4.12pts (+41.2% ROI) for his followers. Amongst those 10 runners, hurdlers are 3 from 6, handicappers 2 from 5 and handicap hurdlers winning 2 of 3.

And it’s with Tom Lacey we stay for our main chunk of data, as since the start of 2016, his hurdlers are profitable to backed blindly at 63 from 274 (23% SR) for 236pts (+86.1% ROI) and these impressive figures include the following of relevance today…

  • males are 45/206 (21.8%) for 193.7pts (+94%)
  • handicappers are 40/150 (26.7%) for 121pts (+80.7%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/78 (30.8%) for 116.6pts (+149.4%)
  • those ridden by Richard Johnson are 19/65 (29.2%) for 79.9pts (+123%)
  • over this 2m trip : 10/50 (20%) for 70.1pts (+140.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 38.2pts (+90.9%)
  • those dropping down a class are 10/23 (43.5%) for 58pts (+252.4%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.8pts (+36.9%)

…and male handicappers placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 48pts (+145.5% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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