Stat of the Day, 21st February 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

3.00 Ludlow : Flashing Glance @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/4 (Chased leading pair, bumped 1st and next, went 2nd 3rd until pushed along before 3 out, close 3rd, hampered on inside 3 out and next, not much room last, driven and stayed on run, led close home)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Angel Palanas 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on fibresand, worth £5175 to the winner… 

Why?

With two wins and two runner-up finished in his last five outings, this 5 yr old gelding is in decent nick, as exemplified by a narrow victory last time out, seven weeks ago. He was caught very late on over 7f that day whilst running for the second time on three days, so it is hoped that 7 weeks rest allied to a drop back in trip will see him back in the winners’ enclosure today.

To date, he has 4 wins and 4 places from 14 starts here at Southwell, including 2 wins and 3 places from 7 attempts at this course and distance and he has also started to forge a bit of a relationship with today’s jockey, the 7lb claimer Jonathan Fisher, as the two now have 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs together.

Today’s trainer is Karl Burke, who has a great record on the fibresand here at Southwell, clocking up 35 winners from 163 (21.5% SR) for 311.8pts (+191.3% ROI) since 2013, including of relevance/interest today…

  • those rested for less than 50 days : 27/113 (23.9%) for 262.3pts (+232.1%)
  • males : 21/89 (23.6%) for 57.9pts (+65%)
  • Jan/Feb : 16/67 (23.9%) for 292.2pts (+436.2%)
  • with a 7lb claimer on board : 8/46 (17.4%) for 97.5pts (+212%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.9pts (+41.8%)
  • LTO runners-up are 9/23 (39.1%) for 38.2pts (+166%)
  • those beaten by no more than 2 lengths LTO : 8/22 (36.4%) for 38.8pts (+176.5%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey, Jon Fisher are 2/9 (22.2%) for 23.9pts (+265.7%)

…and this simple approach is enough…

…to steer me towards… a 1pt win bet on Angel Palanas 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Marathon & Skybet amongst others at 11.10pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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