Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2019

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.10 Southwell : Angel Palanas @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 4f out until over 2f out, chased leaders, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Doitforthevillage 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good ground, worth £18768 to the winner

Why?

Well, I’m going to keep this relatively short and hopefully very sweet for change with a 10 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last three starts.

He won comfortably (by 7L) two starts ago, before being a well-beaten (21L) runner-up LTO 34 days ago in another Class 2 handicap off the same mark as today. There was however no disgrace in that defeat, as the winner was Cyrname, who dismantled a Grade 1 field at Ascot last week winning by 17 lengths!

Despite that defeat almost 5 weeks ago, our boy has an impressive record in handicap chases, having won 7 of 20 (35%) to date and these include…

  • 6/17 (35.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/16 (37.5%) going left handed
  • 6/14 (42.9%) after 2-7 weeks rest
  • 3/9 (33.3%) at Class 2
  • 5/8 (62.5%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 3/4 (75%) at trips of 2m3.5f/2m4f
  • 2/3 (66.6%) here at Warwick
  • and 1/1 (100%) over course and distance

His trainer, Paul Henderson has had other success here too, with 5 winners from 12 (41.7%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last three years generating profits of 9.2pts at an ROI of 76.7%, with handicap chasers winning 4 of 6 (66.6%) for 8.36pts (+139.4%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Doitforthevillage 7/2 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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