Friday’s Pick was…
2.50 Warwick : Doitforthevillage @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, hit 2nd, steady headway on outside chasing leaders before 2 out, hung left between last 2, switched right and kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd towards finish, 2.25L off the pace)
Saturday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Steelriver @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG
…in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on Tapeta, worth £2426 to the winner…
Well, you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d lost the plot in backing a 9 yr old gelding who hasn’t won for a while (56 races over almost 52 months if we’re being specific!), but in my/his defence he has looked more like winning since returning to Michael Herrington’s yard, where he was relatively successful during a 13-month stay in 2014/15.
He has made the frame in each of the three races since the switch of yard and his three defeats have come at a combined deficit of less than 1.5 lengths and only went down by a neck LTO, 8 days ago in another Class 6, 6f, A/W (Tapeta) handicap, when partnered by today’s jockey for the first time.
His long losing run has taken his career record from a reasonable 3/20 to an admittedly pretty poor 3/76, but it’s interesting (to me, at least!), that of his three career victories…
- all were on the A/W
- 2 were in handicaps
- 2 for Michael Herrington
- 1 at 6f
- 1 here at Wolverhampton
Trainer Michael has himself had some joy here at Dunstall Park in recent years, especially at the sharper end of the market, with 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 61.4% with runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter in handicaps here since the start of 2015. Of relevance today of those 31 runners…
- over trips of 5/6f : 6/19 (31.6%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
- at Class 6 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 18.26pts (+107.4%)
- Feb-April : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.14pts (+115.3%)
- in 2018 (no quals yet this year) : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.87pts (+63.3%)
- top 2 finish LTO : 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
- 7-14 days since last run : 6/12 (50%) for 17.56pts (+146.3%)
- and over this 6f C&D : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.37pts (+67%)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Hills respectively at 5.45pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!