Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

2.50 Warwick : Doitforthevillage @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, hit 2nd, steady headway on outside chasing leaders before 2 out, hung left between last 2, switched right and kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd towards finish, 2.25L off the pace)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on Tapeta, worth £2426 to the winner

Why?

Well, you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d lost the plot in backing a 9 yr old gelding who hasn’t won for a while (56 races over almost 52 months if we’re being specific!), but in my/his defence he has looked more like winning since returning to Michael Herrington’s yard, where he was relatively successful during a 13-month stay in 2014/15.

He has made the frame in each of the three races since the switch of yard and his three defeats have come at a combined deficit of less than 1.5 lengths and only went down by a neck LTO, 8 days ago in another Class 6, 6f, A/W (Tapeta) handicap, when partnered by today’s jockey for the first time.

His long losing run has taken his career record from a reasonable 3/20 to an admittedly pretty poor 3/76, but it’s interesting (to me, at least!), that of his three career victories…

  • all were on the A/W
  • 2 were in handicaps
  • 2 for Michael Herrington
  • 1 at 6f
  • 1 here at Wolverhampton

Trainer Michael has himself had some joy here at Dunstall Park in recent years, especially at the sharper end of the market, with 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 61.4% with runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter in handicaps here since the start of 2015. Of relevance today of those 31 runners…

  • over trips of 5/6f : 6/19 (31.6%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 18.26pts (+107.4%)
  • Feb-April : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.14pts (+115.3%)
  • in 2018 (no quals yet this year) : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.87pts (+63.3%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • 7-14 days since last run : 6/12 (50%) for 17.56pts (+146.3%)
  • and over this 6f C&D : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.37pts (+67%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Hills respectively at 5.45pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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