Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn’t at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today…

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today…

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

AND…from the above… Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including…

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

leading to…Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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