Stat of the Day, 26th February 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

3.55 Ayr : Casual Cavalier @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, led 4 out, strongly challenged 2 out, headed final 50 yards, no extra)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Debbonair 10/3 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £2911 to the winner

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in decent enough form on the A/W this winter finishing 132, all on Polytrack and always looking like he needs further. Well, he steps up another 2f tonight for his Tapeta/Wolverhampton debut and I’d expect him to go well again.

Ben Curtis is in the saddle tonight and although this is his first ever ride here at Wolverhampton on a Hugo Palmer-trained horse, he did ride 12 winners from 32 (37.5% SR) for the trainer last year with a £10 bet on each runner yielding £197 profit at an ROI of 61.5%, including 10 wins from 18 (55.6%) for 11.21pts (+62.3%) at Class 5 and 2 from 8 (25%) for 2.06pts (+25.7%) on the A/W.

Hugo Palmer’s own record here at Dunstall Park is good with 31 winners from 117 (26.9% SR) for 73.2pts (+62.6% ROI) profit since 2012 and these include of relevance today…

  • on Tapeta : 28/104 (26.9%) for 38.5pts (+37%)
  • Wolves debutants : 23/85 (27.1%) for 55.3pts (+65%)
  • Class 5 : 21/73 (28.8%) for 64.1pts (+87.9%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 22/72 (30.6%) for 69.6pts (+96.7%)
  • Tapeta debutants : 21/72 (29.2%) for 56.5pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 19/56 (33.9%) for 23.4pts (+41.8%)
  • in handicaps : 13/50 (26%) for 50.9pts (+101.8%)
  • 2nd to 5th LTO : 19/49 (38.9%) for 79.7pts (+162.6%)
  • up in trip : 11/43 (25.6%) for 39.6pts (+92.1%)
  • and in February : 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.59pts (+36.9%)

…whilst more generally, Hugo’s runners stepping up in trip are 106/578 (18.3% SR) for 378.5pts (+65.5% ROI), which is an angle worth keeping an eye on, as is the fact that in UK A/W contests, his runners with at least 1 career run to their name, now tackling a particular A/W surface for the first time are 62/230 (27% SR) for 112.2pts (+48.8% ROI), including…

  • Tapeta debuts : 28/86 (32.6%) for 55.8pts (+64.9%)
  • in handicaps : 21/80 (26.3%) for 69.3pts (+86.6%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.6pts (+117.2%)

…from which…tapeta debutants in Wolverhampton handicaps are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 15.79pts (+83.1% ROI), with 5 winners from 14 (35.7%) for 9.93pts (+70.9%) since the start of 2017…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Debbonair 10/3 BOG which was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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