Stat of the Day, 27th February 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

7.30 Wolverhampton : Debbonair  @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 15/8 (Prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Rivas Rob Roy 9/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 7f on Polytrack, worth £3105 to the winner

Why?

As the longer/more complicated explanations of the last few days haven’t really worked out for us, I’m going to keep it really simple today with a 4yr old gelding who was only beaten by a nose when last seen four weeks ago and runs off a mark some 6lbs lower than his last winning effort.

So, he’s running well and could be favourably weighted, which piqued my interest, because trainer John Gallagher’s horses running off marks lower than their last win and who are coming off a losing streak of five or more races are 18/131 (13.7% SR) for 60.4pts (+46.1% ROI) since 2011 with an A/E of 1.34 and of these 131 runners…

  • those racing at trips no further than 1.5 miles are 17/116 (14.7%) for 65.2pts (+56.2%)
  • those 1-7 lbs lower than their last winning mark are 14/94 (14.9%) for 45.9pts (+48.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 14/84 (16.7%) for 65.25pts (+77.7%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 15/69 (21.7%) for 51.5pts (+74.7%)
  • after a break of over 25 days since their last run : 10/50 (20%) for 80.6pts (+161.2%)
  • and 26-30 dslr : 4/11 (36.4%) for 56.9pts (+517.3%)

…whilst based on the above…at 5f-1m4f + 1-7lbs lower than last win + Class 5/6 + 10/1 max SP + 16-180 dslr = 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.5pts (132.2% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Rivas Rob Roy 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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