Stat of the Day, 28th February 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

8.30 Kempton : Rivas Rob Roy @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leader, every chance over 1f out, ridden and chased winner approaching final furlong, no impression inside final furlong, lost 2nd post)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.20 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

…in a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground, worth £6433 to the winner

Why?

As I seem to have gone “off the boil” (hardly ideal with that big meeting approaching), I could do with ending the month on a high via a 10 yr old gelding (yes, desperate times!) who was a runner-up at Kelso 37 days ago, but now drops in class, steps up in trip and is effectively 6lbs better off via an easing of his mark and the booking of a 5lb claimer who has the made the frame on both previous outings with this horse.

Our trainer, today, is Lucinda Russell, who has been at this game long enough to know what she’s doing and she, like me, knows that she’s in with a chance at Musselburgh with horses deemed by the market to be “in with a chance”. If that’s a little vague, let’s put it into numbers…

Lucinda Russell + Musselburgh + shorter than 9/1 SP + 2015-19 = 25/108 (23.2% SR) for 35.5pts (+32.9% ROI), a handy little starting point if you pitched up at the track 5 minutes before racing starts. I, however, have the benefit of time (too much, some would say) to dig deeper into those runners to see which ones in particular are best to follow. After all, that angle is good but has 83 losers!

So, how about taking the 108 and finding out that…

  • males are 24/94 (25.5%) for 41.5pts (+44.1%)
  • handicappers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 44.3pts (+49.2%)
  • 7-11 yr olds : 18/65 (27.7%) for 45.3pts (+69.7%)
  • hurdlers : 14/57 (24.6%) for 34.2pts (+60%)
  • £4k to £8k prize money : 13/48 (27.1%) for 22.5pts (+46.8%)
  • handicap hurdlers : 13/43 (30.2%) for 39pts (+90.8%)
  • stepping up in trip : 9/35 (25.7%) for 17.6pts (+50.3%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 11/33 (33.3%) for 37.4pts (+113.3%)
  • over this 3m trip : 9/27 (33.3%) for 17.9pts (+66.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/21 (33.3%) for 12.4pts (+59%)
  • in February : 5/20 (25%) for 6.47pts (+32.4%)
  • Class droppers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • and at Class 3 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.07pts (+73.8%)

And if you wanted just around a third of the original sample size, but retaining half of the winners, then male handicap hurdlers competing for less than £8k are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for healthy profits of 38pts at an ROI of some 105.5% and closer inspection of these 36 runners shows that…

  • 31-45 dslr = 8/15 (53.3%) for 34pts (+226.4%)
  • 3m C&D : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%)
  • Up in trip : 6/10 (60%) for 32.23pts (+322.3%)
  • February : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.7pts (+181.2%)
  • and class droppers are also 3/7 (42.9%), but for 7.7pts profit (+110%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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