Stat of the Day, 1st March 2019

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.20 Musselburgh : Sky Khan @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Held up in close 3rd, pushed along after 4 out, ridden before 2 out, kept on to press for 2nd run-in, no chance with winner)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

8.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Star Cracker 6/1 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 7, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 5f on tapeta, worth £2814 to the winner

Why?

After February fizzled out somewhat, I’m looking for a good start to March via this 7 yr old gelding, a former C&D winner now running off a mark 2lbs lower than his last win which was incidentally here over C&D back in November. Allied to the easing of his mark is a drop in class and this must surely represent the best recent chance he has had of winning and becoming the latest course winner for trainer Jim Goldie…

…whose runners are 25/199 (12.6% SR) for 99.3pts (+49.9% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Gosforth Park in the last two years, including of note/relevance today…

  • in handicaps : 25/189 (13.2%) for 109.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 24/179 (13.4%) for 114.2pts (+63.8%)
  • 1 to 8 weeks since last run : 25/173 (14.5%) for 125.2pts (+72.4%)
  • males : 18/154 (11.7%) for 84.1pts (+54.6%)
  • at 5/1 or shorter : 18/59 (30.5%) for 17.7pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 5f C&D : 10/51 (19.6%) for 10.7pts (+21%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 5/42 (11.9%) for 122.5pts (+291.6%)
  • OR 46-49 : 4/25 916%) for 14.83pts (+59.3%)

…and if we focus on the first five subsets above, we get… male handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter competing for less than £8,000 after a break of 1 to 8 weeks winning 12 of 40 (30% SR) for 9.94pts (+24.9% ROI), including Primos Comet who won here over this 5f C&D last night under today’s jockey Ali Rawlinson!

…which gives us… a 1pt win bet on Star Cracker 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.00 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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