Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

8.00 Newcastle : Star Cracker @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG

…in the 6-runner Spring Cup Stakes (Listed) for 3yo’s over 7f on polytrack, worth £25520 to the winner

Why?

This 3yr old colt is in excellent form winning 4 of his last 5 outings and has a record of 1611 on the A/W, including a visit on his only previous run here.

To date he is…

  • 3/4 at odds of 2/1 and bigger
  • 3/4 as a non-fav
  • 2/3 on Poly
  • 2/3 going left handed
  • 2/2 within 7-14 days of his last run
  • 2/2 under today’s jockey PJ McDonald

Trainer Mark Johnston’s horse are in good nick, winning 3 from 9 in the past week and slightly more long term are 9/21 (42.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 11/35 (31.4%) over the past month.

Whilst here on the Lingfield polytrack, MJ’s charges are 41/141 (29.1% SR) for 112.6pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, including…

  • males : 29/94 (30.9%) for 48.3pts (+51.4%)
  • Feb/March : 20/58 (34.5%) for 40.66pts (+70.01%)
  • non-hcps : 15./54 (27.8%) for 37pts (+68.6%)
  • over 7f : 6/20 (30%) for 40.6pts (+203.1%)
  • those with 1 previous course win : 6/15 (40%) for 10.7pts (+71%)
  • and with PJ McDonald in the saddle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.07pts (+78.6%)

PJ comes here just for this one ride today, but has a good record here especially over shorter trips at the sharp end of the market with 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+123.3% ROI) over 6f-1m at Evens to 11/2 since the start of 2017.

And finally, in that same 2017-19 time frame, when PJ has pitched up at a track for just one ride, he’s 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+93.9% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter, from which…

  • Mark Johnston horses are 5/15 (33.3%) for 8.9pts (+59.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/6 (33.3%) for 3pts (+50%)
  • and on Mark Johnston horses here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 6pts (+200%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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