Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner


This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn’t replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is…

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

…AND…when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today’s conditions in mind, here’s how he got some of those 19 winners…

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

…whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)…

…giving us a… a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I’ve done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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