Stat of the Day, 5th March 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

5.45 Wolverhampton : Arrowzone @ 4/1 BOG 11th at 7/1 (Raced keenly towards rear, never on terms)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Flood Defence 7/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner

Why?

Well, when I’m on a bit of a losing run right now, it might seem strange to plump for a 5 yr old mare who hasn’t won any of her last 12 races over the past 16 months since landing a Class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Sandown off a mark of 66.

In her defence, she has run well here over course and distance lately, finishing third on each of her last two visits, both at Class 5. She’s down at Class 6 today, off a mark of 61, so a win wouldn’t actually be a massive surprise.

Trainer Iain Jardine’s yard is in good nick right now and in their last 6 days of racing (spread over the last fortnight), his horses have won 5 of 13 (38.5% SR) for 9.86pts (+75.9% ROI)

Our jockey today is Adam Kirby, who is 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 5pts (+12.2% ROI) on horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter over the last three weeks, including 4 winners from 10 (40%) for 4.33pts (+43.3%) on tapeta.

The tapeta form is no surprise either, as since 2015, he has 122 winners from 562 (21.7% SR) rides here at Wolverhampton in Class 5/6 contests over trips of 8.5 to 14 furlongs, resulting in profits of 85.8pts at a healthy ROI of 36.4%.

And before I wrap this up, I want to touch back on the horse’s losing run and falling rating, because it’s handy to know that in Flat/AW handicaps since the start of 2105, Iain Jardine’s horses running off a mark 1 to 9lbs lower than their last win and are on a losing run of up to 15 races have actually gone on to break that run on 18 of 141 (12.8% SR) occasions, generating 90.5pts profit at an ROI of 64.2%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Flood Defence 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Monday evening, but if you can, do take the 4/1 BOG from Bet365 as I’ve done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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