Stat of the Day, 6th March 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

5.45 Wolverhampton : Flood Defence @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Took keen hold, prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Same Circus 10/3 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner… 


This 8 yr old mare has won 3 of her last 8 starts, all at Class 3 and/or Listed class and now turns out on a Class 4 race here today at a track where 3m6½f was probably too far for here last time out, but she does have 2 wins and a place from 5 previous visits in total, including a win and a runner-up finish from her two hurdling efforts over course and distance. Further positives come in the figures of 3 wins from 6 in cheekpieces and 3 wins from 4 in Feb/March.

Her trainer, Donald McCain, was the centre/focus of the recent EI outbreak, but his horses now seem fit and well with 7 top 3 (including 3 winners) finishes from 11 attempts so far this month and he has done historically well in handicaps at this venue. So much so, that you could have actually just done a “bet and forget” job on them and made money!

Numerically, we’re looking at 23 winners from 114 runners (20.2% SR) in NH handicaps here at Catterick since the start of 2013 generating 11.3pts profit at a handy 9.9% ROI from purely blind betting. Ideally, we’d cut some losing bets out and increase the ROI, so here’s where the 23 winners came from…

  • all 23 came from 91 (25.3%) sent off at 10/1 or shorter for profits of 34.3pts (+37.7%)
  • 17 from 80 (21.25%) for 24.6pts (+30.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 14 from 63 (22.2%) for 18.1pts (+28.7%) aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+1650%)
  • 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 17.84pts (+93.9%) with a jockey claiming 6-8 lbs
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 2.31pts (+33%) from those with a previous C&D win
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 12.63pts (+157.9%) with Abbie McCain in the saddle

If you wanted a little McCain/Catterick microsystem, you could simply follow his 5-10 yr olds in fields of 6-11 runners at odds of 10/1 and shorter. This approach has been good for 17 winners from 60 (28.3% SR) for 44.6pts (+74.3% ROI) profit, from which hurdlers are 12/38 (31.6%) for 28.2pts (+74.2%) with Abbie riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) of those 38 hurdlers for 13.14pts at an ROI of 328.5%.

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Same Circus 10/3 BOG which was available in around half a dozen or so places at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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