Stat of the Day, 7th March 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.20 Catterick : Same Circus @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Raced on inside, led 1st until headed briefly before 5th, headed before 8th, dropped to last and outpaced next, rallied into modest 3rd on long run before 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, no chance with winner)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6498 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a very consistent, if lightly raced 7 yr old gelding by Midnight Legend (I won’t bang on about ML hurdlers today, you’ll be glad to hear!), who has finished in the first four home in all eight starts, winning twice. His last three runs have all been over his course and distance, finishing 413 and was only beaten by three lengths LTO after making a momentum-losing mistake at the last hurdle.

Bryony Frost is back on board today and she’s 1 from 1 on him after winning here over C&D two starts ago.

This horse is trainer Neil King’s only runner on the card and his hurdlers are running really well right now, finishing 2333311741 in the last 14 days with Bryony’s own record on those horses reading 2331741 and she does tend to ride this track well, having scored 8 times from 31 attempts (25.8% SR) generating 24.3pts profit at an ROI of 78.4% since the start of 2017 and these include of relevance today…

  • in handicaps : 7/25 (28%) for 28.8pts (+115.1%)
  • over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.2pts (+89.5%)
  • in hcp hurdles : 4/14 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+119.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.4pts (+71.4%)
  • in C3 hcp hrds : 3/6 (50%) for 5.58pts (+93%)
  • and in Feb/March : 3/4 (75%) for 20.72pts (+518%)

With regards to the horse’s recent form…in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, runners who won two starts ago and then placed 2nd or 3rd LTO less than three weeks ago are 47/170 (27.7% SR) for 79.6pts (+46.9% ROI), with the following of interest/note today…

  • 5-8 yr olds are 39/131 (29.8%) for 90.7pts (+69.2%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 30/94 (31.9%) for 42.2pts (+44.9%)
  • those last seen 16-20 days earlier are 17/74 (23%) for 45.5pts (+61.5%)
  • 5-8 yo’s within 4 lengths of winner LTO are 24/72 (33.3%) for 42.9pts (+59.6%)
  • those with a previous C&D win are 7/12 (58.3%) for 17.5pts (+146%)
  • and those trained by Neil King are 3/6 (50%) for 8.17pts (+136.2%)

And as I’m not going to go on about hurdlers sired by the mighty Midnight Legend this time, my final snippets of data relate to trainer Neil King, as since the start of 2014 when his only runner at a track was a hurdler, that runner has won 35 of 230 (15.2% SR) for profits of 144.7pts (+63.2% ROI) and these include…

  • males at 33/193 (17.1%) for 169.1pts (+88.1%)
  • Class 2-4 : 30/177 (16.9%) for 172.5pts (+97.4%)
  • in handicaps : 23/143 (16.1%) for 55.2pts (+38.9%)
  • prize money of £4k-£8k : 15/83 (18.1%) for 44pts (+53.1%)
  • 50-80 miles away from the yard : 16/59 (27.1%) for 77.8pts (+131.8%)
  • March/April : 9/41 (22%) for 43.33pts (+105.7%)
  • Bryony Frost : 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.92pts (+41.7%)
  • and previous C&D winners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.16pts (+70.5%)

…whilst Class 2-4, male handicap hurdlers competing for £4k to £8k are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 56.8pts (+111.4% ROI), with those making only a short 50-80 mile journey from home winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 46pts (+287.6%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.10 Wincanton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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