Stat of the Day, 8th March 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

2.10 Wincanton : Myplaceatmidnight @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Prominent, led after 3 out, jumped left and not fluent 2 out, not fluent last, headed towards finish and beaten by 0.75 lengths)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darebin @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground, worth £7507 to the winner… 

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding in good form, including winning this very race last year and is 7 from 30 (23.33% SR) in NH races to date, including…

• 6 wins and 2 places from 24 within a month of his last race
• 6 wins and a place from 21 ridden by Jamie Moore (more on him shortly)
• 5 wins, 3 places from 19 going right handed
• 5 wins, 3 places from 14 over 1m7½f to 2m
• 4 wins, 3 places from 13 on Soft ground
• 5 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
• 3 wins, 2 places from 10 here at Sandown
• 2 wins and a place from 5 over course and distance in chases.

He’s by It’s Gone, whose offspring are 14/55 (25.5%) for 78.3pts (+142.3% ROI) in NH contests so far, including…

• 14/45 (31.1%) for 88.3pts (+196.2%) over 1m7½f to 2m1½f
• 12/44 (27.3%) for 78.9pts (+179.2%) from male runners
• 5/23 (21.7%) for 39.1pts (+170.2%) on soft
• 5/19 (26.3%) for 3.6pts (+19%) over fences
• and 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.2pts (+147.2%) here at Sandown

He is trained by Gary Moore, whose chasers have won 18 of 72 (25% SR) for 54.8pts (+76.1% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012, from which…

• handicappers are 11/51 (21.6%) for 12.7pts (+24.8%)
• 5-8 yr olds are 16/47 (34%) for 69.3pts (+147.5%)
• those ridden by Jamie Moore are 13/38 (34.2%) for 35.5pts (+93.5%)
• over 1m7½f to 2m : 12/32 (37.5%) for 40.4pts (+126.2%)
• at Class 3 : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.2pts (+122.5%)
• and in March : 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.3pts (+92.1%)

…and 5-7 yr old male handicap chasers ridden by Jamie Moore are 6/15 (40% SR) for 20.5pts (+136.5% ROI) including 2 wins from 2 on Darebin over course and distance!

The above isn’t too surprising, as Jamie has ridden 20 winners from 57 (35.1% SR) over fences here at Sandown since 2013, generating profits of 58.4pts at an very attractive ROI of some 102.4% and with today’s race in mind, those numbers include…

• from December to April : 19/47 (40.4%) for 62.4pts (+132.8%)
• in handicaps : 15/47 (31.9%) for 38.9pts (+82.7%)
• in fields of 10 or fewer : 19/40 (47.5%) for 66.4pts (+166%)
• at odds of 10/1 or shorter : 20/38 (52.6%) for 77.4pts (+203.7%)
• riding for Gary Moore : 12/35 (34.3%) for 36.9pts (+105.3%)
• at Class 3 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 28.9pts (+131.1%)
• and over 1m7½f to 2m : 14/21 (66.7%) for 39.5pts (+188.3%)

…from which…Dec-April + 10/1 max + 10 runners max + 1m7½f to 2m = 14/18 (77.8% SR) for 42.5pts (+236.3% ROI), including…

• for Gary Moore : 8/11 (72.7%) for 23.7pts (+215.2%)
• at Class 3 : 6/8 (75%) for 16.6pts (+207%)
• for Gary Moore at Class 3 : 3/5 (60%) for 8.82pts (+176.4%)
• and for Gary Moore at Class 3 from 2015-19 : 3/3 (100%) for 10.82pts (+360.7%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Darebin @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!