Stat of the Day, 9th March 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.10 Sandown : Darebin @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, went right 4 out, headed 2 out, soon no chance with winner, weakened, lost 2nd towards finish)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

8.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Treacherous 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on poly track, worth £9338 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, as I seem to be hitting more woodwork than a twitchy woodpecker, I’m going to try and keep this one pretty simple with a hat-trick seeking 5 yr old gelding who won at Newcastle over 6f 6 weeks ago and then here over this 6f C&D 3 weeks later/ago.

To date he is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR plus 4 places) on the A/W for 18.71pts (+144% ROI) profit, including…

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.7pts (+164.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 14.88pts (+124%) here at Kempton
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) under jockey Callum Shepherd
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) within 6-25 days of his last run
  • 3/5 (60%) for 10.57pts (+211.4%) over 6f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.73pts (+168.3%) over this Kempton 6f course and distance

…and from the above…In Kempton handicaps at 5/1 and shorter under Callum Shepherd at 6-25 days since last run = 3/5 (60% SR) for 13.36pts (+267.2% ROI) including a 2/2 (100%) record over C&D worth 8.73pts (+436.5%).

He is trained by Ed de Giles, whose LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 21.2pts (+58.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2015, from which…

  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 10/22 (45.5%) for 17.1pts (+77.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 4/13 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+40%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 5/9 (55.5%) for 24.21pts (+269%)
  • and those ridden by Callum Shepherd are 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 7.6pts (+108.4%)

whilst 5 yr olds sent off at 5/1 and shorter here at Kempton are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.36pts (+218% ROI), with Callum having ridden one of them : Treacherous LTO!

…all of which led me to… a 1pt win bet on Treacherous 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BlackType at 7.05pm on Friday evening, although take 10/3 BOG from Skybet if you can, as I’ve done. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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