Saturday’s pick was…
8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Le Capricieux @ 7/2 BOG
…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner…
An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.
He’s by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including…
- 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
- 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
- 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
- 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
- 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
- and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners…
…whilst trainer Gary Moore’s own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which…
- those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
- at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
- at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
- and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)
…and this simple approach gives us… a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!