Stat of the Day, 12th March 2019

Monday’s pick was…

2.40 Stratford : Le Capricieux @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 7th until next, blundered and lost place 2 out, rallied under pressure disputing 3rd between last 2)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Your first 30 days for just £1

Lucarno Dancer 10/3 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £3314 to the winner…


This 9 yr old mare was a winner on her chase debut at Catterick in a Class 4 contest a little over 10 weeks ago and now takes a drop in class today. Callum Whillans was riding her for the first time that day and he retains the ride here, hoping to put his 3lb claim to good use.

The mare has previously own on soft ground and in fact both previous career victories have been going left handed whilst wearing a tongue tie, as will be the case today.

Stat/numerically-wise, I’m keeping it really simple today (I’m sure you’ve other more important stuff to read about another meeting elsewhere this afternoon!)

Trainer Donald Whillans + Sedgefield + 2014-19 = 6/24 (25% SR) for 22.83pts (+95.1% ROI), why he doesn’t bring ore horses here is beyond me, but of those 24 over the last five years…

  • those ridden by Callum are 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.83pts (+103.6%)
  • handicappers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 19.04pts (+100.2%)
  • those sent of in the 2/1 to 9/1 bracket are 6/17 (35.3%) for 29.83pts (+175.5%)
  • those racing on soft/heavy ground are 4/17 (23.5%) for 14.35pts (+84.4%)
  • those rated (OR) less than 90 are 5/14 (35.7%) for 27.75pts (+198.2%)
  • those last seen 3 to 11 weeks ago are 4/14(28.6%) for 20.38pts (+145.6%)
  • those racing over trips shorter than 2.5 miles are 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.75pts (+221.2%)
  • female runners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.39pts (+149.1%)
  • and those racing on soft ground are 3/13 (23.1%) for 7.2pts (+55.4%)

…from which we can ascertain that…Donald + Callum + Sedgefield handicaps + 2/1 to 9/1 + shorter than 2.5 miles + OR of 75 to 90 = 4/5 (80% SR) for 27.96pts (+559.2% ROI) profit and these include…

  • females at 3/3 (100%) for 20.6pts (+686.5%)
  • soft/heavy at 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.47pts (+482.3%)
  • and females on soft/heavy are 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Lucarno Dancer 10/3 BOG which was available in half a dozen or so places at 6.05pm on Monday evening, although I’m on with Skybet at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *