Cheltenham Festival 2019: Day Two Preview, Tips
On to Day 2, Wednesday, and another septet of teasers the highlight of which is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and that lad, Altior. That is but one of four Grade 1 shemozzles, those four tiptop treats supported by two impossible handicaps and the good old Cross Country Chase.
1.30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
The intermediate novices’ hurdle but one where speed is usually at more of a premium than stamina. Naturally, class remains a prerequisite.
The favourite and top rated horse is Champ, who brings a most progressive profile to the party. Winning at Perth in May last year hardly hinted at what was to follow, as Nicky Henderson’s McManus-owned novice rattled off a four-timer most recently by strolling to victory in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle. Prior to that he’d put a big field of high class handicappers to the sword off a mark of 139 and now has a perch of 152, the best in the field by fully five pounds.
He hurdles well, travels well and clearly has an abundance of class. With all his winning at around the two and a half mile range, however, there’s a slight niggle as to whether he quite has the speed for this. Yes, I do know the distance of the Ballymore but it tends to go to a horse with a bit of two mile form. He’s not run at the shorter trip so it’s unfair to say he doesn’t have the toe for it. He’s a worthy favourite.
The pick of the Irish is presumed to be Battleoverdoyen, Gordon Elliott’s unbeaten son of, you guessed it, Doyen. He was good in a Grade 1 novice hurdle over two and a half miles at Naas last time and, after just three starts, retains plenty of upside. He’s rated 146, joint third best.
Interestingly, given how good a guide official ratings have been in this race, the second top-rated, on 147, is City Island. Martin Brassil may be a somewhat unfashionable trainer but he’s a very good one, and his four time winner (including a disqualification for a banned substance, arsenic, apparently present in a seaweed-based supplement the horse was taking) has been achieved from two miles to this trip. He’s yet to face Graded company but that’s the sort of thing, allied to his ‘no name’ connections – though his trainer has saddled a Grand National winner – that makes for a price.
Brewin’upastorm rounds out the single figure odds horses. Olly Murphy’s inmate looked set to perhaps get the better of a duel with Birchdale when taking a heavy tumble at the last here on Trials Day. The trainer is convinced Brewin’ is not the sort to dwell on such a pearler, but he also has to reverse Challow form with Champ. There he was beaten four lengths, though again Murphy feels he gave the wrong instructions to his jockey on the day. That’s a lot of what Lydia Hislop would call ‘yak’ (i.e. chat or conjecture) but Olly knows the horse better than anyone else and he will have the tactics spot on this time. He has speed and class and might just be his fledgling trainer’s best chance of a Festival winner this season, assuming he hasn’t already bagged the Supreme by the time you read this!
Elliott runs Galvin as well, a horse which has been running exclusively at two miles and is unbeaten in five bumpers and novices hurdles both sides of the Irish Sea. The form has worked out quite well despite the lesser courses at which it’s been achieved; this son of Gold Well could improve for the extra distance and might have sailed under the radar a little hitherto.
The rest have a stone or so to find on ratings but there are a couple who could be better than their current marks. The first is Ben Pauling’s Bright Forecast, who made a striking impression on his debut when running on through a field of twenty to win going away. That was a deep-looking Newbury heat which has worked out well and he followed up at Leicester before finding only Supreme-bound Mister Fisher too good in the Rossington Main at Haydock. The longer trip looks sure to be in his favour though I’d not want him to adopt his recent front-running tactics. A more conservative ride early could see him on the premises up the hill. I like him, regardless of the result here.
The other to catch the eye is Sams Profile for Mouse Morris. Winner of a two mile maiden hurdle early in the season, he’s since been second in a Grade 3 over three miles and then in a Grade 1 over two and a half behind Battleoverdoyen. There was sufficiently little between the pair to make Sams Profile of interest at 12/1 if you like the winner that day at 3/1 this day.
Ballymore Pace Map
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle Selection
It’s a trappy betting heat where most of the field still have improvement to come, and where some of the marks allocated at this stage could be awry. Champ looks best of the British, and he’s a worthy favourite who looks sure to give backers a run for their money if not getting too far back.
At a bigger price, both City Island and Bright Forecast look capable of getting involved. The former has plenty of speed and no little class, the latter looks a horse with a future.
Suggestion: Back City Island (10/1 Coral) each way. A small nibble on Bright Forecast (33/1 Betfred) could reward Hail Mary players.
2.10 RSA Chase (Grade 1, 3m)
Almost always a terrific spectacle, the RSA Chase is the race for next season’s Gold Cup aspirants. The top of the market had long looked sewn up between Delta Work, Santini and Topofthegame but all three are suddenly surprisingly easy to back.
Clear jolly remains Delta Work, the Gordon Elliott-trained son of Network that won the Pertemps Final at last year’s Festival. He then stepped into Grade 1 company to run second at Punchestown. This season has been about fences and, after scoring in the obligatory beginners’ chase, he’s added back-to-back Grade 1 victories to his impressive CV.
The form of his Drinmore win (2m4f) looks very decent, more so than his three mile chase win last time, but he continues to offer cause for concern with some sticky leaps. He has little – nothing, in fact – to spare on ratings so, while he can win (of course), he’s skinny enough and it is easy to see why bookies want to ‘get’ him.
The flip-flopping pick of the Brits is Topofthegame, Paul Nicholls’ Kauto Star Novices’ Chase runner up. A maiden over fences after a brace of silver medals, he was also second in the Coral Cup at the Festival last term. He doesn’t seem to lack resolution in spite of that string of 2’s, his jumping is accurate and he stays well. But he does always seem to bump into one…
My long range fancy for this was Santini. Third in the Albert Bartlett last season and a fine winner at Grade 1 level at Aintree subsequently, he won a Grade 2 chase on his fencing bow before getting predictably outpaced on the speed strip that is Kempton. He rallied best of all from the last there, suggesting the stronger test of the RSA was bang on for him.
Alas, since then it’s all gone wrong. First he missed his intended prep in the Reynoldstown due to having to get a booster jab, and then he got a foot problem which wasn’t immediately poulticed and took a day or two longer to repair. It probably leaves him under-cooked for this big gig, though his price has drifted from 5/2 to 4/1 and that may overstate his preparation problems. On the other hand, it may not!
Nicky Henderson saddles Santini and he also runs On The Blind Side, a dual Grade 2 scorer over hurdles but found out when upped to G1 company. He was last of four in the Dipper at this track, but has since beaten a 145 chaser three lengths in receipt of six pounds at Kempton. That doesn’t add up to an RSA winner in my book.
If the top of the market is to be taken down, then perhaps Tom George’s The Worlds End might surprise. He was making a potentially race-winning move in the 2017 Albert Bartlett before coming down at the second last, and that seemed to have left a mark on him in open staying hurdle company last term. But, now chasing, he’s looked classy if inconsistent in winning twice and losing twice. First the good: he turned the tables on Ibis Du Rheu two runs back over this course and distance (but on the other, New, track) by some margin, making all and easing clear. Now the not so good: he made mistakes aplenty when taken off his feet in the Kauto Star at Kempton.
That race has famously not yet produced a winner to double up in Cheltenham’s RSA. Equally well known is how many beaten horses at Sunbury have prevailed at Cheltenham, the slower tempo and stronger emphasis on stamina allowing horses to get into a better jumping rhythm and grind it out. Though he’d perhaps not want it too heavy, and though he’s a Jekyll and Hyde performer, if the good The Worlds End shows up, he’s going to look an enormous price at 25/1.
Drovers Lane has had a wind op since winning over 2m5f here and he’s won three of his four chase starts. It would be fantastic for Rebecca Curtis, whose yard have had a few seasons in the doldrums since the At Fishers Cross days, if he ran well; he doesn’t have a heap to find on official ratings.
RSA Chase Pace Map
RSA Chase Selection
It’s a tricky race in which a clear round would probably see Delta Work go close; but that’s only what the market is saying. I’d be worried about Topofthegame’s propensity to bump into one for all that I don’t think he’s ungenuine; and Santini’s interrupted prep is very far from ideal. No wonder the bookies are looking to get a result here!
I’m going to roll with that theory and take a pony (25/1) punt on The Worlds End who might be considered unlucky not to already be a Cheltenham Festival winner. He probably wouldn’t want it too soft but if the worst of the rain misses the course he’ll look overpriced come post time.
Suggestion: take a chance each way on The Worlds End (25/1 Unibet, Coral; 22/1 1/5 1234 Victor)
2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)
26 runners. In a handicap hurdle. Sponsored by a bookmaker. Seriously? You want to bet in this?
I’m not going to pretend I’ve ever backed the winner of this race or ever expect to. However, I’m told classier unexposed horses do best, so what about the long absent Diamond Cauchois? He had a little spin round Punchestown in a non-rules race in November and has otherwise been kept away from the track. But a G2 score at this trip last season says he’s got the class for the gig if fit enough. Noel Fehily, with the best hands in the business, steps in to ride. The 20/1 will be gone before you read this, and I can’t get it anyway (thanks, Fred), but perhaps 14s is still worth a small passing interest.
Brio Conti is another without too many miles on the clock and he will have come on for the run, and win, last time at Ascot. 12/1 is worth a dabble perhaps. And William Henry bids to improve on last season’s fourth place off the same mark. He’s had a wind op since last seen (Nicky Henderson 12 from 32, +12.92 with W1’s according to Query Tool) and seems to love the hurly-burly of a big field. 40/1 looks massive.
But, honestly, I don’t profess to have any ‘in’ to this race whatsoever.
Coral Cup Pace Map
Coral Cup Suggestion: leave well alone, or back your own judgement! Diamond Cauchois (16/1) and William Henry (40/1) are my guesses. And, let’s be clear, that’s all they are. Maybe we’ll be lucky…
3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
And so to the Royal Procession that looks likely to be the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Altior, a perfect 17 from 17 over hurdles and fences, is solid odds on to make it 18. Until a couple of weeks ago, when he was usurped by an upstart called Cyrname, he was the highest rated chaser in training. There are many unhappy about Altior’s deposing and it might be that impressive victory here returns the Nicky Henderson superstar to his golden plinth.
Be all that as it may, this is a horse race and we must consider the merit of the favourite in the context of his field as well as the race conditions. Dealing with the latter first, it will be two miles at Cheltenham on rain softened ground, exactly the medicine he drank so stoically at the Festival last year. There, after an interrupted preparation, he looked momentarily in trouble before rattling home in trademark fashion from the high class Min.
So, no dramas on the race conditions score; what about the field? The truth is, with the exception of the re-opposing Min and the unpredictable Politologue, he is miles clear of the others. In another year, a year when Altior didn’t show up, Min would have been an eleven length winner last year. His margin over God’s Own, Politologue a further five back lengths back in fourth – of five finishers – was decisive. He again looks set to do battle with the 2018 also rans for the honour of runner-up, a performance he is odds on to reprise.
Champion Chase Pace Map
Champion Chase Selection
In truth, it looks a shallow contest, notwithstanding the sumptuous cherry on top of the somewhat flimsy cake; and those looking for a bet might do worse than Saint Calvados each way without Altior. He was utterly compromised last year in the Arkle when taking on Petit Mouchoir for the lead, both of them collapsing to the rear of the field and allowing Footpad to saunter home in his own time.
But here he might get his favoured solo on the front. God’s Own is eleven now, Politologue is deeply unreliable and Sceau Royal, the other in front of him in the market aside from Min, was behind him on soft ground in the Tingle Creek.
Suggestion: Try Saint Calvados at 16/1 without Altior each way (1/4 123 bet365)
4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
The ‘marmite’ race. Some people love it, some hate it. Me? I’m a fan: it’s something different, it often showcases some of the old warriors, and it’s a damn fine prep for the Grand National to boot. It is a race dominated by the Irish – only Philip Hobbs’ Balthazar King, twice, has wrested the prize from the Emerald Isle since its inception in 2005 – and they again have a strong hand this term, spearheaded by last year’s winner, Tiger Roll.
The Tiger’s palmarès is one of the most brilliantly eclectic in racing. A winner on his juvenile hurdle debut for Nigel Hawke in 2013, he was snapped up at the sale that December for £80,000 and sent to Gordon Elliott. With Elliott, Tiger Roll has since won a Triumph Hurdle, a Munster National, a National Hunt Chase, a Cross Country Chase, a Grand National, and a Boyne Hurdle. I mean, just, WOW!
He’s still only nine and could have this in the palm of his hand if in the same form as he was when winning the race last year. That day he had two lengths to spare over the French cross country expert, Urgent De Gregaine, now eleven and returning for another crack. Emmanuel Clayeux’s veteran has run three times over course and distance, adding a win and a third in handicaps to that silver medal last March. He’s been very lightly raced in recent seasons making the 144 day layoff less of a concern; but I want to be against him I think, even though older horses had a decent record in the race in its formative years.
More likely are the Enda Bolger contingent of Auvergnat and Josies Orders. Auvergnat was fourth in this last year before winning the Le Touche Cup at Punchestown, and is a banks specialist. He’s rated within a pound of Tiger Roll in this discipline, and comes here in great form off the back of a valuable big field handicap chase win at Leopardstown at Christmas.
Josies Orders is eleven now, but seems to have found a new lease of life this season, winning the cross country race here in November and the PP Hogan at Punchestown, a major trial for the Glenfarclas. He’s a four time winner over course and distance, including the 2016 renewal of the Festival race and his full record over these banks reads 1113613, the bold figures representing Festival races. Granted, he was a little out of form last term when finishing only sixth, but he looks close to his best again now.
Jamie Snowden saddles Fact Of The Matter, winner of the December handicap and second in the November handicap both over course and distance. He’s far worse off at level weights with a number of these but handicap ratings have been no sort of indicator down the years and, as a horse proven to relish this unique test, he looks a reasonable each way play. He’s had a wind op since that December victory.
Hurricane Darwin, twice closest to Josies Orders in the past year, most recently in the PP Hogan, is worthy of mention, as perhaps is the other French entry, Amazing Comedy, fourth in the December handicap here and fifth in this race last year. 40/1 may marginally downplay his place prospects.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection
A cracking renewal – deeper than normal – so, whilst I thoroughly respect Tiger Roll (what a horse!), I have to look elsewhere for a bet. Auvergnat and Josies Orders should both go well and maybe dutching the pair at around 3/1 is a way to go. Fact Of The Matter is tempting each way at 16/1.
Suggestion: Split your stake 60/40 between Auvergnat (6/1 general) and Josies Orders (9/1 Paddy) for an approximately 3/1 dutch.
4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
The Fred Winter as was. My crikey – this is not my jurisdiction! Last year, Gordon Elliott won with a 33/1 shot. He’s won it before, too, but Paul Nicholls’ three wins – and six further places – from 18 runners is exceptional: 50% placed horses in a ferocious handicap.
Nicholls saddles just one, the 25/1 shot Dogon, whose profile deserves closer inspection. Experienced in France, he actually won a two and a quarter mile 3yo chase at Fontainebleu in November, prior to pulling up in the Triumph Hurdle trial at this track in January. Since then he’s run an eye-catching second at Wincanton, pulling hard and giving the impression that this stiffer test of stamina and faster pace will suit better. He’s not an obvious contender, but then neither was Veneer Of Charm or Flying Tiger or Qualando or Flaxen Flare or Hawk High or Une Artiste, all of whom won this race at 25/1 or bigger in the last ten years.
Clearly, then, this is a race in which to take a small chance at a big price. Elliott runs three, two of which are single figure prices and they can beat me if they’re able; but the other is Coko Beach, available at 20/1 in a place. He won a French hurdle race before running down the field in Grade 2 company at Leopardstown at Christmas and then receiving a tender enough ride in a novice hurdle last month. Ex-French runners have a great record in the race, a note in support of both Dogon and Coko Beach.
Obviously, a score more with chances, including three more ex-French that have yet to race in Britain, one of them – Fox Pro – trained by the Nick/Jane Williams axis, successful in 2017 with Flying Tiger and with 3rd and 5th places as well from just seven runners.
Boodles / Fred Winter Pace Map
[Gaps represent runners yet to race in UK or Ireland]
Boodles / Fred Winter Selection
I could analyse this contest in great detail but I’d likely be unable to add much to the above. It’s a race which generally hasn’t gone to the head of the market and in which I’ll take a little punt on the three named above.
Suggestion: Back any or all of Dogon (25/1 bet365), Coko Beach (16/1 Hills 1/5 12345) and/or Fox Pro (25/1 general)
5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)
Really tricky, and I don’t have any idea what might win. Gordon Elliott talks about Envoi Allen as a future Gold Cup winner, the unbeaten five year old finding plenty for pressure in a Grade 2 last time. He’s top rated on official figures, an angle which has been a good predictor of Champion Bumper winners, and he’s also favourite.
The value against him might just be Abracadabras, who almost clipped heels with Envoi Allen inside the final furlong before running through the rail. That incident demonstrates how close to the favourite he’d got, and he looked to still have a bit more to give. With the wide open spaces of Cheltenham sure to preclude a repeat sob story, and perhaps a little less greenness as a result of that run, the Gigginstown-owned stablemate can turn the tables at three times the price.
Most of these are unexposed and can/will step forward markedly on what they’ve shown so far, most notably perhaps the four-year-olds Blue Sari and Cascova.
Champion Bumper selection
An interesting race to watch rather than wager, though Envoi Allen had little in hand of Meticulous, Abracadabras, and a couple of others last time. In the circumstances, my interest wager will be the unlucky one from Leopardstown and his rider Lisa O’Neill.
Suggestion: Try Abracadabras each way at 10/1 (1/5 1234 Victor)
And that concludes a somewhat briefer (relatively, at least) spin through Wednesday’s Day 2 action. Plenty of races in which it’s hard to take a strong view, and where we may have to be both good and lucky to come out in front I feel.