Stat of the Day, 15th March 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

8.00 Southwell : Tynecastle Park @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Disputed lead until led over 4f out, ridden 2f out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.5 lengths)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.55 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Potters Midnight 11/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft worth £10787 to the winner… 

Why?

With a first prize of almost £11k, this is the day’s most valuable race (if you discard that other meeting) and I’m hoping to win it with a 9 yr old mare who has 3 wins and 3 places from her last 8 efforts over hurdles and was third LTO at Market Rasen on quicker ground than she’d like 26 days ago.

That said, another place took her career stats to…

  • 4/8 at 2m-2m0.5f
  • 3/6 at 2m
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 11 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Jack Quinlan
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 here at Fakenham
  • 2 from 3 here over 2m-2m0.5f
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at Class 3
  • and 1/1 over course and distance

…so conditions look ideal for another big run and her yard is in decent form too. Since our mare’s third placed finish LTO, her trainer Lucy Wadham has had 6 winners from 18 runners (33.3% SR) for 27.66pts (+153.7% ROI) profit and these have included…

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 27.74pts (+252.2%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.44pts (+84.4%) at odds of evens to 4/1
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 32.2pts (+644%) at Class 3.

…whilst more generally, here at Fakenham, Lucy is 28/104 (26.9% SR) for 46pts (+44.3% ROI) since the start of 2012 and this fantastic record includes the following baker’s dozen of profitable angles all at play today…

  • at odds of 11/10 to 10/1 : 27/86 (31.4%) for 62.3pts (+72.5%)
  • hurdlers : 15/65 (23.1%) for 12pts (+18.4%)
  • handicappers : 16/64 (25%) for 22.7pts (+35.5%)
  • finished 2nd-6th LTO : 18/60 (30%) for 35pts (+58.4%)
  • 3 to 10 weeks since last run : 19/54 (35.2%) for 40.2pts (+74.5%)
  • 2m-2m1f : 13/39 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+86.7%)
  • Class 3 : 11/32 (34.4%) for 38pts (+118.6%)
  • Good to Soft : 9/26 (34.6%) for 26.5pts (+102%)
  • Feb/March : 7/24 (29.2%) for 13pts (+54.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/20 (35%) for 15.54pts (+77.7%)
  • 8/9 yr olds : 9/19 (47.4%) for 27.5pts (+144.7%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.45pts (+115.3%)
  • and horses with 1 previous C&D win are 4/10 (40%) for 3.35pts (+33.5%)

…which all points towards… a 1pt win bet on Potters Midnight 11/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Fakenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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