Stat of the Day, 16th March 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.55 Fakenham : Potters Midnight @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden to lead bend approaching last, blundered last, soon headed, no extra)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Captain Cattistock 7/2 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 2, Novice Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Heavy worth £25024 to the winner… 

Why?

A bit late with the write-up (I was waiting until the track passed inspection!) and the going is now heavy…

…but I’m hoping that won’t tax our 6yr old gelding who won 22 days ago when last seen at Exeter, taking his career record to 4 wins from 10, including…

  • 4/9 wearing at tongue tie
  • 4/7 in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 4/7 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter
  • 3/5 after a break of 3-6 weeks
  • 3/4 in February/March
  • 2/2 on heavy
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 over this trip
  • 1/1 in handicap novice chases
  • and 1 from 1 under today’s jockey Lorcan Williams

Trainer Paul Nicholls’ chasers are running/jumping well right now with a 30-day record showing 12 winners from 44 (27.3% SR) for 10.78pts (+24.5% ROI).

As for the going, we know he’s 2/2 on heavy, but you might not know that he’s by Black Sam Bellamy, whose 4-10 yr old, soft/heavy ground, handicap jumpers are 18 from 129 (14% SR) for 21.8pts (+16.9% ROI) since the start of 2017…

…whilst more generally since 2014 in UK Class 1-4 handicap chases, horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6-25 days after winning a Novice chase LTO are 159/537 (29.6% SR) for 111.1pts (+20.7%) and these include…

  • males at 147/497 (29.6%) for 103.5pts (+20.8%)
  • over trips of 2m6f to 3m2.5f : 63/202 (31.2%) for 82pts (+40.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/49 (24.5%) for 19.3pts (+39.4%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 11/27 (40.7%) for 27.5pts (+101.8%)

…from which males over 2m6f to 3m2.5f are 59/186 (31.7% SR) for 81.6pts (+43.9% ROI), with 7 winners from 17 (41.2%) for 26.2pts (+154%) here at Uttoxeter…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Captain Cattistock 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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