Stat of the Day, 19th March 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.05 Southwell : Darlyn @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led before 2 out, pressed last, found extra run-in, driven out to win by a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £5133 to the winner… 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding bears top weight here today, conceding at least 7lbs to each of his rivals despite a fairly poor run of form over the past 12 months. In fairness most of that run of form has been over the larger obstacles, but he did revert to hurdling (considered good enough to run at Gr3 less than a year ago!) for his latest run 23 days ago when a reasonable fourth at a higher grade than this and on ground faster than he’d ever run on before.

A drop in class allied to softer conditions underfoot should see him in a better light as he seeks to improve upon his trainer’s already decent record at this venue. Putting that into numbers, we see that trainer Evan Williams’ handicappers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 31.5pts (+32.8% ROI) here at Taunton since 2013, with the following of relevance today…

  • males are 16/90 (17.8%) for 37.5pts (+41.6%)
  • hurdlers are 10/55 (18.2%) for 45.7pts (+83%)
  • at 2m to 2m1f : 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.62pts (+104.3%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 10/37 (27%) for 15.16pts (+41%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/27 (18.5%) for 6.62pts (+24.5%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 4/18 922.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.9%)

Now, the fact he concedes weight all round could be seen as a negative by some people, but you might (or might not!) find it interesting that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, top-rated (OR) 5 to 9 yr olds carrying a race top-weight of 11-13 to 12-07 (after all claims considered) are 59 from 235 (25.1% SR) for 60.7pts (+25.8% ROI), from which…

  • those sent off at 15/2 or shorter are 57/164 (34.8%) for 97.56pts (+59.5%)
  • those last seen 4-30 days earlier are 47/137 (34.3%) for 76.26pts (+55.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 113-124 are 37/129 (28.7%) for 62.16pts (+48.2%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 17/55 (30.9%) for 49.27pts (+89.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/50 (30%) for 30.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and 7 yr old sare 14/49 (28.6%) for 24.93pts (+50.9%)

…and a simple yet highly profitable micro from the above? How about those sent off at 15/2 or shorter, 4-30 days after their last run? These runners are 47 from 102 (46.1% SR) for 111.26pts (+109.1% ROI) profit!

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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