Stat of the Day, 20th March 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.00 Taunton : Oxwich Bay @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Chased leaders in 4th, pushed along after 3 out, weakened on long run before next)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m7f on Soft (Heavy in places) worth £8058 to the winner… 


So, it’s the old boys on show here and with very little in the way of decent, recent form on show from this 10-runner field, our boy’s 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over the last 9 months stands out quite starkly.

He has 9 career wins to date, broken down with this contest in mind as follows…

  • 7 within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5 at Class 4, 5 in fields of 8-11 runners, 5 going left handed
  • 4 over fences, 4 under Danny Cook’s steering
  • 3 on Soft ground
  • and 2 as a 12 yr old

As intimated above, Danny Cook will be in the saddle and his record riding for trainer Sue Smith is quite remarkable, as the partnership is actually profitable to back blindly after over 600 outings! More accurately, they are 116/643 (18% SR) for 125.9pts (+19.6% ROI) together and in the context of this race, those 643 runners can be filtered as follows…

  • males are 114/611 (18.7%) for 147.9pts (+24.2%)
  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 102/533 (19.1%) for 102.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in fields of 6-12 runners : 88/460 (19.1%) for 162.3pts (+35.3%)
  • in handicaps : 91/450 (20.2%) for 102.7pts (+22.8%)
  • in chases : 78/372 (21%) for 42.3pts (+11.4%)
  • unplaced LTO : 69/361 (19.1%) for 205pts (+56.8%)
  • Soft/Heavy ground : 73/359 (20.3%) for 68.25pts (+19%)
  • Class 4 : 57/291 (19.6%) for 67.9pts (+23.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/177 (20.3%) for 35.5pts (+20%)
  • at Haydock : 10/63 (15.9%) for 65.6pts (+104.2%)
  • and in 2019 alone : 13/54 (24.1%) for 30pts (+55.6%)

…and from the above…male hcp chasers in fields of 6-12 runners competing for £4-13k on Soft ground = 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 47.4pts (+67.7% ROI), including…

  • within 45 days of last run : 22/57 (38.6%) for 54.1pts (+94.9%)
  • Class 4 : 12/40 (30%) for 12.76pts (+31.9%)
  • Class 4 within 45 days : 11/30 (36.7%) for 19.7pts (+65.7%)
  • in 2019 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.12pts (+182.4%)
  • and in 2019 at Class 4 within 45 days of last run = 2/2 (100%) for 12.12pts (+606%) : both by today’s pick Dartford Warbler!

Finally (!) and more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases, males who won two starts ago and are now running less than 3 weeks after finishing fourth last time out are 36/137 (26.3% SR) for 156.7pts (+114.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG which was available from Hills at 5.20pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Betfair were offering 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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