Stat of the Day, 21st March 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.20 Haydock : Dartford Warbler @ 15/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway 5 out, chased leaders next, never able to challenge)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.35 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

A lightly raced 5 yr old gelding, making just his 7th start under Rules (was a winner in his only PTP contest), but has finished as a runner-up in three of his last four over hurdles, coming very close last time out, nine days ago and probably would have won but for a mistake late on.

Now he’s at the same class, trip and OR as LTO, Mitchell Bastyan is in the saddle again and I’d suggest a slightly better jumping performance wins him this race. Mitchell again claims his 5lb allowance and he’ll be buoyed by 2 wins and a place from 6 efforts over hurdles in the last fortnight.

Trainer Evan Williams is 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 139.2pts (+267.6% ROI) in Chepstow handicap hurdles since 2015 but it’s clear that those figures are slightly skewed by one big-priced winner, so if we impose a sensible 14/1 odds cap on those runners, we then move to 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) and 58.9pts (+140.2% ROI) profit, which is still excellent and includes of relevance today…

  • 1 to 6 weeks since last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.6pts (+169.7%)
  • Class 4 : 3/17 (17.7%) for 10.8pts (+63.6%)
  • in March : 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+183.3%)
  • ridden by Mitchell Bastyan : 2/5 (40%) for 27pts (+539.8%)

This horse also became of interest via two of my microsystems, starting with the fact that since 2012, Evan Williams’ handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO went on to win 49 of 185 (26.5% SR) for 65.3pts (+35.3% ROI), from which…

  • 2-10 dslr : 39/119 (32.8%) for 48.2pts (+40.5%)
  • hurdlers are 24/74 (31.2%) for 56.6pts (+73.5%)
  • Class 4 : 25/76 (32.9%) for 46.3pts (+60.9%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 20/72 (27.8%) for 64.8pts (+89.9%)
  • Runner-up LTO : 19/65 (29.2%) for 49.2pts (+75.6%)
  • and in March : 11/27 (40.7%) for 19.8pts (+73.4%)

And secondly, since the Geegeez racecard pace tab says he likes to run mid-division with an average pace score of 2.25, I refer to one of my saved Query Tool angles which tells me that over the last 5 years in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps, 5 to 9  yr olds with an average previous pace score of 2 to 3 who are down to carry 12-0o to 12-05 before claims over trips of 2m4f or shorter on non-heavy ground are 58/200 (29% SR) for 87.3pts (+43.65% ROI) at Industry SP (which we should better with BSP or BOG, of course), including…

  • Class 4 : 38/136 (27.9%) for 80.1pts (+58.9%)
  • hurdlers : 33/115 (28.7%) for 47.2pts (+41%)
  • and Class 4 hurdlers are 20/67 (29.9%) for 44.4pts (+66.2%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 12.30am this morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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