Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.35 Chepstow : Treasure Dillon @ 4/1 BOG WON at 15/8 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4th, led narrowly before 3 out, clear next, won easily easing down)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

6.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Porrima 17/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has finished 112 in her three runs since returning from a 20-week break with all three runs coming here at Newcastle under today’s jockey Andrew Mullen and she’d quite likely have won all three but for blowing the start last time out.

To date, she has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today…

  • 2 & 2 from 6 here at Newcastle
  • 2 & 2 from 6 on the straight
  • 3 & 2 from 5 in Jan-March
  • 2 & 1 from 5 in this grade
  • 2 & 2 from 4 under Andrew Mullen
  • 2 & 1 from 4 within 30 days of her last run
  • 2 & 1 from 3 as a 4yr old
  • 2 & 1 from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (which now looks likely!)
  • and 2 & 1 from 3 on std to slow tracks

Her trainer Ben Haslam is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 128.3pts (+147.5% ROI) in A/W hcps on this track since the start of 2017 and these produce a host of profitable angles, including 8 winners from 27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts (+87.9%) at Class 5, but it’s the trainer’s record with today’s jockey that I want to focus on today, as…

Mullen + Haslam = 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 72.5pts (+259.1% ROI) over the last 12 months, with the following of note here…

  • on the A/W : 7/27 (25.9%) for 52.6pts (+194.8%)
  • on tapeta : 7/26 (26.9%) for 53.6pts (+206.1%)
  • at Newcastle : 7/24 (29.2%) for 55.6pts (+231.6%)
  • in handicaps : 8/23 (34.8%) for 77.5pts (+337.1%)
  • odds below 5/1 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.3pts (+86.8%)
  • Class 5 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.55pts (+69.3%)
  • and females are 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)

It’s fairly obvious that the top 4 items of that list are where we should focus, because Mullen + Haslam + Newcastle Tapeta hcps = 7/20 (35% SR) for 59.6pts (+298% ROI), from which…

  • sub-5/1 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.3pts (+120.8%)
  • females = 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)
  • Class 5 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • Class 5 & sub-5/1 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • sub-5/1 females = 1/2 (50%) for 1.85pts (+92.5%)

…and Class 5 females sent off shorter than 5/1 are also 1 from 2 for 1.85pts and just happen to be Porrima’s last two outings…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Porrima 17/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 5.50pm on Thursday, whilst Skybet were another half point bigger! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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