Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2019

Friday’s pick was…

6.00 Newcastle : Porrima @ 17/2 BOG 6th at 15/2 (Fly leapt at start again, held up in last pair, good headway near side of group over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Executive Force 11/4 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner… 


This 5yr old gelding has been on an amazing run of form this year, winning five of six and finishing as a runner-up in the race he lost! Last seen 7 days ago at Wolverhampton, when winning yet again.

He is now 5 from 14 on the All-Weather and this includes of relevance today…

  • 5/10 in cheekpieces
  • 3/9 going left handed
  • 5/8 in Feb/March
  • 3/8 over 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4/7 under jockey Franny Norton
  • 5/6 this year
  • and 2/2 within a week of his last run

Afore-mentioned jockey Franny Norton has 7 winners from 27 in the last 30 days, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) in the past fortnight, whilst since 2015 in A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m2f here at Lingfield, he has 14 winners from 66 (21.2% SR) for 95.9pts (+145.3% ROI).

Trainer Michael Wigham has also been amongst the winners of late with a 9 from 30 (30% SR) record over the last 60 days, including 3 from 6 in the past fortnight, whilst since 2013 when using the services of Franny Norton, his horses are 17 from 84 (20.2% SR) for 21pts (+25% ROI), including…

  • 16/76 (21.1%) for 24.9pts (+32.7%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 21.8pts (+80.7%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.7pts (+98.7%) from 5 yr olds
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.14pts (+53.8%) with horses running within 10 days of their last outing
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.5pts (+9.3%) in March
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.41pts (+31%) from LTO winners…

…whilst more generally over the last two years…

  • Martin’s runners turned out with 10 days of their last run are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 35.44pts (84.4% ROI)
  • his LTO winners are 13/38 (34.2%) for 16.8pts (+44.3%)
  • whilst his LTO winners turned back out within 10 days are 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.2pts (+144.4%), of which Franny Norton has 4 winners from 4 for 5.25pts profit…

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Executive Force 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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