Stat of the Day, 25th March 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

3.10 Lingfield : Executive Force @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along 2f out, headway entering final furlong, ridden and stayed on to lead close home, won gamely by a neck)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner… 


Well, I’m going to keep it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old filly making just her sixth start, having finished 313 in her last three outings and was beaten by less than a length last time out. That was at Lingfield 10 days ago in a similar Class 5, 6 furlong contest to this one.

Her trainer James Tate is 11 from 32 (34.4% SR) over the last 60 days and 5 from 16 (31.25%) in the past month, whilst on the All-Weather at trips shorter than 10 furlongs, his runners are 38/166 (22.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+34.7% ROI) since the start of 2018, including of relevance today…

  • at Class 5 : 26/118 (22%) for 32.3pts (+27.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 10/1 are 35/106 (33%) for 70.6pts (+66.6%)
  • in handicaps : 19/61 (31.2%) for 18.2pts (+29.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 13/53 (24.5%) for 8.2pts (+15.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 13/46 (28.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.8%)
  • and with David Allan in the saddle : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.53pts (+19.1%)

…whilst in Class 5 handicaps shorter than 10/1, these runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 26.45pts (+110.2% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 (50%) for 13.75pts (+171.8%) here at Wolverhampton…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, 888Sport & BetVictor at 7.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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