Stat of the Day, 26th March 2019

Monday’s pick was…

6.45 Wolverhampton : Distant Mirage @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Towards rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG

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…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Good to Soft ground worth £6758 to the winner…


A lightly raced 7 yr gelding making a handicap debut is the one carrying my money today (hope the added weight doesn’t stop him!). He’s had just four runs to date (2 of which were in bumpers), finishing in the frame (3323) each time and his two efforts over hurdles have seen him only beaten by a neck and then a length, so it wouldn’t take much improvement to get him up for a first win.

And with no disrespect intended to Ryan Day, I feel the booking of Brian Hughes in the saddle might just make that little bit of difference needed, especially as he’s got an 18.9% strike rate (67 from 355) on this track since 2011, including winning 14 of 64 (21.9% SR) since the start of 2018.

Trainer Nicky Richards trains this horse just 45 miles away from this venue and it’s surprising that he’s only sent 59 runners here since 2012. What isn’t surprising, however, is that he does well with the ones he does send over, a sign of picking and choosing the right races, perhaps?

Of those 59 runners sent on the short hour or so journey, 17 (28.8% SR) have won, generating level stakes profits of 12.93pts at an ROI of 21.9%, so it’s not a lack of success keeping him away, surely.

Anyway, it’s not for me to guess why he’s not a regular here, but I can tell you that of those 59 visitors…

  • those sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 16/41 (39%) for 21.3pts (+51.9%)
  • hurdlers are 10/36 (27.8%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/30 (30%) for 14.5pts (+48.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 13/29 (44.8%) for 28.6pts (+98.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 8/29 (27.6%) for 5.3pts (+18.2%)
  • over trips of 2m4f – 3m : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.6pts (+107.1%)
  • those racing on Soft/Good to Soft ground are 8/18 (44.4%) for 12.9pts (+71.4%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.1%)

And with this horse making his handicap bow, it’s also worth noting that since 2012, Nicky’s handicap debutants are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.9% ROI), including of note today…

  • Oct-April = 13/56 (23.2%) for 21.2pts (+37.9%)
  • hrds = 10/56 (17.9%) for 7.1pts (+12.6%)
  • males = 14/53 (26.4%) for 28.7pts (+54.2%)
  • Sub-5/1 = 12/35 (34.3%) for 22.7pts (+65%)
  • 1-6 months off track = 9/35 (25.7%) for 22.1pts (+63%)
  • Soft/Gd to Soft = 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.1pts (+65.7%)
  • Class 4 = 9/26 (34.6%) for 23.7pts (+91.2%)
  • at 2m4f = 5/11 (45.5%) for 24.1pts (+218.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds = 4/10 (40%) for 17.26pts (+172.6%)

…from which sub-5/1 male hurdlers running in November to April within 4 months of their last outing are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 21.5pts (+165.6% ROI) profit, including…

  • at Class 4  :5/8 (62.5%) for 16.03pts (+200.4%)
  • on Soft/Gd to Soft : 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.65pts (+227.4%)
  • whilst those racing at Class 4 on Soft/Gd to Soft are 2 from 2 (100%) for 7.15pts (+357.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG which was available from at least 8 firms at 5.50pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering an extra half point for those quick enough/allowed to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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