Stat of the Day, 27th March 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.40 Hexham : Glinger Flame @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led on bit approaching last, soon shaken up and clear, winning very easily by some 18 lengths!)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…


An in-form 4 yr old gelding (2311 last 4 runs) steps up in trip aiming to complete a hat-trick for trainer Mick Channon.

Stat-wise, I’m going to keep it relatively short, simple and hopefully sweet, based around the fact that…

since the start of 2011, Mick Channon’s horses racing over 1m6f and beyond on the All-Weather are 14 from 68 (20.6% SR) for profits of 28.5pts at an ROI of 41.9% with an A/E of 1.32 and and IV of 1.81 (A/E and IV’s north of 1 are good) and this simple approach has been profitable in all bar one year of the quoted timeframe.

As usual, my headline stat will contain various relevant angles at play on the day and from these 68 runners…

  • those competing for a prize of less than £5,000 are 13/61 (21.3%) for 28.4pts (+46.6%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 13/50 (26%) for 38.56pts (+77.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 10/47 (21.3%) for 22.3pts (+47.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 9/1 : 12/45 (26.7%) for 35.3pts (+78.4%)
  • males are 11/45 (24.4%) for 30pts (+66.6%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days earlier are 9/39 (23.1%) for 31.9pts (+81.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 9/34 (26.5%) for 11.8pts (+34.6%)
  • from March to May : 9/25 (36%) for 20.8pts (+83.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.1pts (+61.2%)
  • LTO winners are 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.7pts (+179%)
  • and in March : 4/10 (40%) for 17.85pts (+178.5%)

…whilst 3/4 yr olds sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 when aiming for a prize of less than £5k on Polytrack are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 26.5pts (+204.1% ROI), an angled that is 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.3pts (+276.8%) over the last two years…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Skybet just before 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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