Stat of the Day, 28th March 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.35 Lingfield : Harry Callahan @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 4f out, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Gantier 3/1 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 3 yr old son of Frankel who seems to haven taken to the A/W quite well, finishing 2212 in four efforts so far and was only beaten the 0.75 lengths LTO 5 weeks ago here at Wolverhampton over 9.5 furlongs. He was staying on well enough that day against a short priced jolly and I think the extra 2.5 furlongs today will suit him. He’s trainer John Gosden’s only runner at the meeting and will be partnered by Kieran O’Neill, which I’m happy about, because…

…Gosden + O’Neill = 13 from 59 (22% SR) for 36.7pts (+62.2% ROI), from which…

  • 9 from 33 (27.3%) for 32.1pts (+97.2%) on the A/W, including…
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 15.65pts (+195.7%) here at Wolverhampton, which isn’t too surprising when you realise/consider that…

…John Gosden + Wolverhampton + Tapeta = 65/188 (34.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+13.3% ROI) from blindly backing all his runners here! If you wanted to be more selective, you could look at the following angles at play today…

  • sub-5/1 shots are 63/141 (44.7%) for 42.2pts (+30%) and you could realistically stop here
  • 3 yr olds are 33/97 (34%) for 12.84pts (+13.2%)
  • 21-60 days since last run = 23/53 (43.4%) for 27.9pts (+52.7%)
  • up in trip by 1 to 2.5 furlongs = 14/40 (35%) for 21.2pts (+53.1%)
  • over this 1m4f course and distance : 6/12 (50%) for 13pts (+108.3%)

…and from the above… 3yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1, 21 to 60 days after last outing are 11 from 24 (45.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.6% ROI), with those stepping up in trip winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 9.02pts (+69.4%).

And finally for today, with Mr Gosden having just one runner at this venue, it might interest some of you to know that since 2013 when sending just one runner to a track that day, those horses are 63/249 (25.3% SR) for 36pts (+14.4% ROI) profit in handicaps, from which…

  • 3 yr olds are 47/185 (25.4%) for 15.8pts (+8.54%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 48/180 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+29.1%)
  • prize of £8k or less : 40/168 (23.8%) for 11.89pts (+7.1%)
  • males : 42/166 (25.3%) for 38.3pts (+23.1%)
  • Class 4/5  : 35/140 (25%) for 20.71pts (+14.8%)
  • on the A/W : 30/124 (24.2%) for 13.6pts (+11%)
  • up in trip by 0.5 to 3 furlongs : 29/99 (29.3%) for 54pts (+54.6%)
  • and over this 1.5 mile trip : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.7pts (+24.8%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Gantier 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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