Stat of the Day, 29th March 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

2.50 Wolverhampton : Gantier @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Stumbled out of the stalls, went sideways and slowly into stride, held up in last pair, headway over 1f out, stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Warrior’s Valley 10/3 BOG

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…in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding seems to be on top of his game right now, finishing 121 in his last three outings, only beaten by a half length in that defeat and was a winner of another Class 4, 5 furlong handicap last time out (15 days ago).

He likes to blast out and run from the front and according to the pace tab on our racecard, he’s quite likely to be allowed to attempt to make all, which should suit us today. He currently has 5 wins and 3 places from 15 efforts on the A/W so far, all over this minimum 5f trip and these include of relevance today…

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 as a 4yr old
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 in March
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 on Polytrack
  • 3 wins from 4 at 8-15 dslr
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 over this course and distance
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 under today’s jockey Lewis Edmunds
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 4

His trainer David Griffiths’ overall record since the start of 2017 isn’t great, if I’m honest, with just 52 winners from 520 runners (10% SR) and blindly backing them would have seen you lose over 90pts at Betfair SP or 17.3% of your stakes in that time, ISP backers faring almost twice as badly!

However, not many trainers are profitable to follow blindly, you have to find where they excel and of David’s 520 runners in the last 27 months, over 48% (25 in total) of his winners have come in 5f A/W sprints from just 19.8% (103 in total) of all his runners.

48% of his winners from 19.8% of his runners puts a whole new complexion on whether to follow David Griffiths’ runners, but in simple terms…

…had you backed all his 5f A/W sprinters since the start of 2017, you’d have 25 winners from 103 (24.3% SR) and 42.8pts (+41.6% ROI) of profit, which is great, but even that can be improved by simply only backing those running in handicaps, as they are 24/90 (26.7% SR) for 54.2pts (+60.2% ROI).

So, backing David Griffiths’ 5f, A/W handicappers is an angle worth following and we could leave it there for today, but you know I won’t!

Because, of those 90, with today’s race in mind…

  • males are 20/78 (25.6%) for 52.4pts (+67.2%)
  • those who last ran 3-30 days earlier are 22/72 (30.6%) for 62.6pts (+87%)
  • those racing in fields of 7-12 runners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 65.3pts (+100.5%)
  • those sent off at 6/1 or shorter are 20/41 (48.8%) for 44pts (+107.4%)
  • those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins are 12/31 (38.7%) for 25.8pts (+83.3%)
  • those running on Polytrack are 7/24 (29.2%) for 11.7pts (+48.7%)
  • from March to May inclusive : 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.6pts (+58.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/22 (27.3%) for 9.2pts (+41.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 1.32pts (+7%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.2pts (+139.8%)

…whilst based upon the above and relevant today… males sent off at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 in fields of 7-12 runners in 5f A/W handicaps some 3-25 days after their last run are 13 from 31 (41.9% SR) for 45.7pts (+147.5% ROI), with those with 1-3 previous C&D wins going in again on 9 of 18 (50%) occasions for 29.1pts (+161.6%) profit…

…pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Warrior’s Valley 10/3 BOG which was offered by SkyBet, BetVictor & Boylesports at 6.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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