Stat of the Day, 30th March 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.05 Lingfield : Warrior’s Valley @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Pressed winner, outpaced 2f out, driven and stayed on inside final furlong, just held near finish, beaten by a neck)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Zamparelli 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4494 to the winner… 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m0.5f in another Class 4 contest when last seen at Market Rasen 16 days ago and is now 3 from 8 over fences, including 3 from 4 after a break of 16-30 days and 2 from 6 at this grade.

He became of further interest to me when popping up on my Dan Skelton chasers micro-system, where I look for Class 3-5 handicap chasers sent of at odds of 11/10 to 11/1, because such runners are 108 from 458 (23.6% SR) for 71.4pts (+15.6% ROI). Of course, I’m not suggesting you back all of them, but it’s a good starting point.

To help narrow down the number of bets, the following logical angles are at play today…

  • males are 97/414 (23.4%) for 71.6pts (+17.3%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 93/360 (25.8%) for 82.9pts (+23%)
  • those ridden by Harry Skelton are 85/355 (23.9%) for 45.6pts (+12.9%)
  • from March to November : 90/349 (25.8%) for 88.7pts (+25.4%)
  • since the start of 2017 : 62/239 (25.9%) for 77.7pts (+32.5%)
  • on Good ground : 65/232 (28%) for 85.4pts (+36.8%)
  • those returning from a short 16-30 day break are 46/168 (27.4%) for 74.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 29/90 (32.20%) for 65.6pts (+72.9%)
  • whilst those racing over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f are 22/78 (28.2%) for 46.5pts (+59.6%)

…and if you just wanted around 25 bets a year from an angle, then…

…2016-19 / March to August / males ridden by Harry Skelton / races worth £8k or less = 27/81 (33.3% SR) for 42.4pts (+52.4% ROI), including 22 from 60 (36.7%) for 40.2pts (+67%) on Good ground.

More generally, aside from the trainer’s excellent numbers above…since the start of 2013 in UK Class 4 handicap chases, males sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of winning another Class 4 handicap chase LTO are 62 from 212 (29.3% SR) for 52.2pts (+24.6% ROI), including 14 from 40 (35%) for 36.8pts (+92%) since the start of 2018…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Zamparelli 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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