Friday’s pick was…
3.05 Lingfield : Warrior’s Valley @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Pressed winner, outpaced 2f out, driven and stayed on inside final furlong, just held near finish, beaten by a neck)
Saturday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4494 to the winner…
This 7 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m0.5f in another Class 4 contest when last seen at Market Rasen 16 days ago and is now 3 from 8 over fences, including 3 from 4 after a break of 16-30 days and 2 from 6 at this grade.
He became of further interest to me when popping up on my Dan Skelton chasers micro-system, where I look for Class 3-5 handicap chasers sent of at odds of 11/10 to 11/1, because such runners are 108 from 458 (23.6% SR) for 71.4pts (+15.6% ROI). Of course, I’m not suggesting you back all of them, but it’s a good starting point.
To help narrow down the number of bets, the following logical angles are at play today…
- males are 97/414 (23.4%) for 71.6pts (+17.3%)
- in races worth less than £8,000 : 93/360 (25.8%) for 82.9pts (+23%)
- those ridden by Harry Skelton are 85/355 (23.9%) for 45.6pts (+12.9%)
- from March to November : 90/349 (25.8%) for 88.7pts (+25.4%)
- since the start of 2017 : 62/239 (25.9%) for 77.7pts (+32.5%)
- on Good ground : 65/232 (28%) for 85.4pts (+36.8%)
- those returning from a short 16-30 day break are 46/168 (27.4%) for 74.4pts (+44.3%)
- 7 yr olds are 29/90 (32.20%) for 65.6pts (+72.9%)
- whilst those racing over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f are 22/78 (28.2%) for 46.5pts (+59.6%)
…and if you just wanted around 25 bets a year from an angle, then…
…2016-19 / March to August / males ridden by Harry Skelton / races worth £8k or less = 27/81 (33.3% SR) for 42.4pts (+52.4% ROI), including 22 from 60 (36.7%) for 40.2pts (+67%) on Good ground.
More generally, aside from the trainer’s excellent numbers above…since the start of 2013 in UK Class 4 handicap chases, males sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of winning another Class 4 handicap chase LTO are 62 from 212 (29.3% SR) for 52.2pts (+24.6% ROI), including 14 from 40 (35%) for 36.8pts (+92%) since the start of 2018…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!