Stat of the Day, 1st April 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

5.05 Uttoxeter : Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 13/8 (Held up in rear, mistake 9th, some headway on outside before 14th, weakened 4 out)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap  for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £15562 to the winner… 

Why?…

This 7 yr old gelding has raced 11 times in the past year and hasn’t failed to finish in the first four home, winning three times, showing consistently good form. To date he is 1222441321 on the All-Weather and this includes…

• 1321 at 2 miles and beyond
• 2321 after a break of less than 25 days
• a win and a runner-up finish from two Class 2 outings
• 1 from 1 here at Newcastle (over C&D)
• 1 from 1 under today’s jockey Mark Crehan…

…who is hardly a household name, but has made a good start to life in the saddle and has (so far) been profitable to follow! To date he has 13 wins from 107 rides (12.2% SR), which is a decent start and although the profits of 142pts (+132.7% ROI) are swollen by a big-odds winner, these are still good figures.

I’d never advocate blindly backing a jockey and I’m more interested in his relationship with trainer Mick Appleby, because of Mark’s 13/107 record, he’s actually 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 56.4pts (+131.3% ROI) for Mick Appleby and those excellent figures include…

• 11/36 (30.6%) for 63.4pts (+176.1%) on male horses
• 10/29 (34.5%) for 22.7pts (+78.4%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
• 8/24 (33.3%) for 59.4pts (+247.4%) on those returning from a break of 11-31 days
• 7/21 (33.3%) for 21.4pts (+101.7%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
• and 6/35 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+107.6%) when Mark has claimed a 7lb allowance

…whilst Crehan + Appleby + sub-8/1 males + 11-31 dslr + top 3 LTO = 6/10 (60% SR) for 21.83pts (+218.3% ROI), including 4 from 8 (50%) for 13.61pts (+170.2%) whe Mark claims 7lbs…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!