Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2019

Monday’s pick was…

5.45 Newcastle : Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (beaten by 2 lengths, report to follow)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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City Tour 5/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

Just 3 previous runs to date for this 3 yr old colt and he returns from his winter break to make a handicap debut on quicker ground than he’s seen before and at a lower grade than previous. This could all point to a bit of a plot job, but others would know far about those things than I do : I’ll just stick to the facts/numbers!

We’re with the tried & tested Johnston/Fanning combination today and unsurprisingly, they’re doing well again having already clocked up 20 winners from 67 (29.9% SR) for 56.7pts (+84.7% ROI) profit in 2019 and both have good records at this venue.

In fact, Mark Johnston’s runners are 72 from 360 (20% SR) for 62.5pts (+17.4% ROI) here at Musselburgh since 2012 and whilst that’s excellent, jockey choice plays a massive part in his success.

On the occasions, he hasn’t been able to secure Joe Fanning’s services, those 360 runners are just 16/137 (11.7%) for a mere 6.6pts (4.82%) profit, but when Joe has been available to ride Mark’s horses here, they have won 56 of 223 (25.1% SR) for 55.9pts (+25.1% ROI), from which…

  • those visiting Musselburgh for the first time are 41/163 (25.2%) for 52.1pts (+32%)
  • 3 yr olds are 30/110 (27.3%) for 21.9pts (+20%)
  • those with no previous career wins are 24/78 (30.8%) for 39.4pts (+50.5%)
  • those with three or fewer career runs are 24/76 (31.6%) for 34.4pts (+45.3%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 21/75 (28%) for 43.1pts (+57.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 24/73 (32.9%) for 18.6pts (+25.4%)
  • in April : 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.1pts (+10.9%)
  • and with horses coming off a 3-9 month break : 6/14 (42.9%) for 5pts (+35.7%)

…and from the above… 2/3 yr olds with no wins from 0 to 3 previous career runs and now coming to Musselburgh for the first time are 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) for 41.3pts (+73.7% ROI), including…

  •  Class 5 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+20%)
  • at this 7f C&D : 7/25 (28%) for 7.4pts (+29.5%)
  • in April : 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.1pts (+200.8%)
  • and after a 3-9 month absence : 4/6 (66.6%) for 6.2pts (+103.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on City Tour 5/1 BOG which was available from Hills at 6.00pm on Monday, as it had been since shortly after 4pm! Not sure wy the other firms haven’t opened, but when they do I’ll update. 4/1 BOG  seems to be the par at 6.55pm, so in the interests of clarity/fairness I’ll declare my results at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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