Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.45 Musselburgh : City Tour @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Chased leaders on outside, went 2nd and hung right inside final furlong, ran on to lead towards finish op 3/1)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG

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…in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £12996 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is the only course and distance winner on show here today, none of the other 10 rivals have won at this trip and only two have registered a victory on this track.

Our boy had a win and a place from 3 bumper runs and has since finished a very respectable 21512 over hurdles, only narrowly beaten LTO 34 days ago. He’s by Axxos, whose hurdlers have won 7 of their 20 starts (35% SR) so far, whilst his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record here at Market Rasen from a fairly small number of runners.

Since 2010, NTD’s runners are 18 from 98 (18.4% SR) here for 20.4pts (+20.8% ROI) profit, from which…

  • males are 16/89 (18%) for 24.4pts (+27.4%)
  • those priced at 6/4 to 10/1 are 14/67 (20.9%) for 27.1pts (+40.4%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 10/51 (19.6%) for 3.1pts (+6.1%)
  • since 2015 : 9/44 (20.5%) for 14.3pts (+32.5%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f to 2m7f : 10/40 (25%) for 25.8pts (+64.5%)

…whilst from the above… Sam’s record on males priced at 6/4 to 10/1 = 7/32 (21.9%) for 15.3pts (+47.9%), including…

  • at 2m5f to 2m7f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.38pts (+64.5%)
  • 2018/19 : 3/6 (50%) for 7.13pts (+118.8%)
  • and at 2m5f-2m7f in 2018/19 = 1/1 (100%) for 2.25pts (+225%) from EarloftheCotswolds’ run here two starts ago!

More generally in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests since 2013, horses with the CD icon next to their name on the racecard who either won or were a top 4 finisher within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 274 from 1231 (22.3% SR) for 215.9pts (+17.5% ROI) backed blindly!

With today’s race in mind, those 1231 runners can be filtered as follows…

  • males are 228/1016 (22.4%) for 193.5pts (+19.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 200/914 (21.9%) for 182.1pts (+19.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 3m : 170/695 (24.5%) for 272.1pts (+39.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 129/457 (28.2%) for 109.3pts (+23.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 85/317 (26.8%) for 199.6pts (+63%)

…and if you wanted a micro giving around 50 bets per year, then 5 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m1f to 3m at Class 3-5 some 11 to 60 days after their last run = 90 from 332 (27.1% SR) for 210.9pts (+63.5% ROI) and there’s just one qualifier today…

…and that gives… a 1pt win bet on EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Tuesday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Market Rasen

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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