Stat of the Day, 4th April 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.05 Market Rasen : EarloftheCotswolds @ 6/1 BOG (=5.1/1 after 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Made virtually all, jumped slowly 2nd, driven and stayed on well run-in to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

1.55 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dolly Dupree 4/1 BOG

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…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 3 yr old filly who has two career wins to her name from 11 starts, not brilliant, but both wins came from 9 runs on the A/W. Both wins came here from 5 attempts at Southwell and both came in her last three starts, so recently she’s a more attractive proposition.

She won back to back large field Class 6 handicaps here under today’s jockey Theodore Ladd after resting for 21-24 days on each occasion, but was beaten by 1.25 lengths LTO when second in a three-runner race at Class 5 over a mile where the winner stole the race from the front.

So, if we compare her two wins, her defeat and today’s race, we see that…

  • She won at Class 6 twice and lost at Class 5 : today is Class 6
  • Theodore Ladd rode both winners, she lost under Danny Brock : Theo is back in the saddle today
  • Theo takes 5lbs off a mark of 56, whereas Danny put up 2lbs overweight on a mark of 55
  • She won after rests of 21 & 24 days : she lost when returning from 8 days off track : she has rested for 28 days this time
  • She won in fields of 10 & 12 runners, but lost in a 3-runner race : 14 line up today

She’s actually 2 from 2 with Theo in the saddle and despite there being 14 runners here, there’s a distinct lack of quality on display, her 13 rivals have just 2 wins between them. Only 2 of her rivals have won a race, only one other has a course victory, only one has a distance victory and only one has won over course and distance, whilst Theo is just one of two jockeys to have ridden a winner here.

She’s by Poets Voice, whose offspring have 16 wins from 80 (20% SR) for 55.5pts (+69.4% ROI) profit in Class 3 to 6 contests here on the fibresand at Southwell, including…

  • handicappers : 13/68 (19.1%) for 40.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 3/4 yr olds : 13/63 (20.6%) for 52.5pts (+83.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 12/1 : 15/61 (24.6%) for 54.5pts (+89.4%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/44 (20.5%) for 37.1pts (+84.4%)
  • females are 7/33 (21.2%) for 30pts (+90.9%)
  • and in 3yo races : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.3pts (+159.3%)

…whilst 3/4 yr old handicappers sent off shorter than 12/1 are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+127.2% ROI)…

And finally for today, it’s possibly worth noting that since 2012 in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7f/1m here at Southwell, horses with CD next to their name but were beaten LTO 16-60 days earlier are 28/234 (12% SR) for 128.1pts (+54.7% ROI), from which those who ran here last time out are 15/133 (11.3%) for 98.3pts (+73.9%), whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 6/1 are 15/74 (20.3%) for 11.4pts at an ROI of 15.4%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dolly Dupree 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday, although I did manage to take 9/2 BOG from Skybet.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.55 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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